[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

[Wei Shi - NOAA Federal]

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons
website:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Global-Monsoon.shtml

*HIGHLIGHTS:*



*African Monsoons:*



Rainfall was below-average over many places in the Central African
countries.



Above-average rainfall was observed over much of Ethiopia and the
neighboring areas of South Sudan and Kenya. Rainfall was also above-average
over southern DRC, and parts of Zambia and Mozambique.



Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over western Angola and the neighboring areas of western DRC, and southern
Ethiopia and coastal Tanzania. In contrast, there is an increased chance
for below-average rainfall over southern South Sudan, eastern CAR,
northeastern DRC, Uganda, Rwanda, and eastern South Africa, Lesotho and
Swaziland.





*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*



For the past 90 days,  with the summer monsoon officially ending in
September  below normal rainfall deficits  dominated much of central and
western India extending into parts of Pakistan, a small region in interior
central eastern China, Thailand, southeastern  Australia, Malaysia,
Indonesia, and Papua New Guinea. Elsewhere, the rainfall amounts received
were at normal to slightly above normal levels, particularly in
Bangladesh, Burma, Japan, Cambodia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. For the
past 30 days, severe rainfall deficits are noted across large parts of
central and northeastern India, coastal eastern China, Thailand, Laos,
Cambodia, large parts of Indonesian islands, Malaysia and New Guinea.
Overall, less (than normal) rainfall fell across the region.



In this past week, rainfall amounts are generally below normal over much of
the region especially along coastal eastern India and northeast India. The
other monsoon over India, termed the Northeast Winter monsoon (Oct-Dec) is
expected to be onset over southern India in this upcoming week  according
to the India Met. Dept. Also according to IMD since the first of October
till today, All India Rainfall has been has been 48% below normal, but deep
southern India’s rainfall has been in excess. In the upcoming two weeks,
the NCEP GFS model forecasts generally below normal rainfall over almost
the entire monsoon region, except over southeastern China in the first
week.





*South American Monsoons:*



Long-term rainfall deficits are present over the Amazon Basin and the
Brazilian Plateau.



During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over
portions of northwestern and the extreme southern Brazil, central Colombia,
northern Peru, Uruguay and eastern Argentina. Above-average precipitation
was observed over much of eastern Brazil, Paraguay, northern and central
Argentina, as well as southern Peru.



For Days 1-7 (22 – 28 October 2018), below-average precipitation is
predicted for portions of northern and the extreme southern Brazil, western
Uruguay, northeastern Argentina and southern Chile.  Above-average
precipitation is predicted for portions of southern Brazil, Paraguay,
northern Argentina, northern and southern Bolivia, northern Peru and
eastern Ecuador.





*For questions or comments, please contact:


Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)
*---------------------------------------------------------------------------
   *
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Meteorologist
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
USA
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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