[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

[Wei Shi - NOAA Federal]

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons
website:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Global-Monsoon.shtml

*HIGHLIGHTS:*



*African Monsoons:*



Weekly rainfall totals exceeded 100mm over southern Congo-Brazzaville,
northern Angola and western DRC.



Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over parts of Guinea-Conakry, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Cote d’Ivoire,
eastern DRC, Rwanda, Burundi, southern Uganda, western Tanzania, and
eastern South Africa. In contrast, there is an increased chance for
below-average rainfall over southern Angola and the neighboring areas of
Zambia, and southern Madagascar.





*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*



For the past 90 days, below normal rainfall deficits  dominated much of
central and western India extending into parts of Pakistan, a small region
in interior central eastern China, Thailand, southeastern  Australia,
Malaysia, the Philippines, parts of Indonesia, and Papua New Guinea.
Elsewhere, the rainfall amounts received were at normal to slightly above
normal levels, particularly in Burma, Japan, Cambodia, and Vietnam. For the
past 30 days, severe rainfall deficits are noted across large parts of
central and northeastern India, coastal eastern China, Thailand, Laos,
Cambodia, large parts of Indonesian islands, Malaysia and New Guinea.
Overall, less (than normal) rainfall fell across the region.



In this past week, rainfall amounts are generally below normal over much of
the region especially along southern and coastal eastern India. The other
monsoon over India, termed the Northeast Winter monsoon’s (Oct-Dec) onset
is much delayed this year, and the revised onset date by IMD is November
1st. Also according to IMD since the first of October till today, All India
Rainfall has been has been 55% below normal, but deep southern India’s
rainfall has been at near normal level.  In the upcoming two weeks, the
NCEP GFS model forecasts generally below normal rainfall over almost the
entire monsoon region, except over southern India in the second week.





*South American Monsoons:*



Long-term rainfall deficits are present over the Amazon Basin and the
northern Brazilian Plateau.



During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over
portions of northwestern and the extreme southern Brazil, western Colombia,
southern Chile, Uruguay and eastern Argentina. Above-average precipitation
was observed over much of southern Brazil, Bolivia, Paraguay, northern
Argentina and eastern Colombia.



For Days 1-7 (29 Oct – 04 Nov 2018), below-average precipitation is
predicted for portions of northwestern and southeastern Brazil, Venezuela
and a small area over western Uruguay and northeastern Argentina.
Above-average precipitation is predicted for portions of central and the
extreme southern Brazil, southern Paraguay, central Argentina and western
Colombia.





*For questions or comments, please contact:


Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)
*---------------------------------------------------------------------------
   *
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Meteorologist
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
USA
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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