[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

[Wei Shi - NOAA Federal]

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons
website:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Global-Monsoon.shtml

HIGHLIGHTS:

*African Monsoons*:

Weekly rainfall totals exceeded 100mm over eastern Cameroon, portions of
CAR and DRC, and western South Sudan.

Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for below-average rainfall
across portions of Nigeria, northern Cameroon, southern Chad, northern CAR,
northern South Sudan and the neighboring areas of Sudan. In contrast, there
is an increased chance for above-average rainfall over northeastern DRC,
western Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, many parts of Ethiopia and northern
Somalia.


*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*
For the past 90 days,  with the summer monsoon officially ending in
September and the expectation underway for the onset of the Northeast
monsoon over Southern India,  below normal rainfall deficits appeared over
southwestern and interior southern peninsular India, a small region in
interior central eastern China, southeastern  Australia, Malaysia,
Indonesia, and Papua New Guinea. Elsewhere, the rainfall amounts received
were at normal to slightly above normal levels, particularly in
 Bangladesh, Burma, Japan, Cambodia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. For the
past 30 days, severe rainfall deficits are noted across large parts of
central India,, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, large parts of Indonesian islands
and Malaysia. Elsewhere rainfall received was at normal to slightly above
normal levels.

In this past week, rainfall amounts are generally below normal everywhere
in the region, large deficits occurred over southern/peninsular and central
India, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam. But over Malaysia and parts of
Indonesia, Burma and coastal Orissa in India rainfall was in excess.
According to the India Met. Dept, since the first of October till today,
All India Rainfall has been has been 48% below normal, but Tamilnadu’s
rainfall has been in excess.  In the upcoming two weeks, the NCEP GFS model
forecasts generally below normal rainfall across much of the region except
over parts of southeastern China and deep southern India.



*South American Monsoons:*
Long-term rainfall deficits are present over the Amazon Basin and the
Brazilian Plateau.

During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over
portions of northern and central Brazil, northern Colombia, eastern
Venezuela and central Argentina. Above-average precipitation was observed
over much of southern Brazil, southern Paraguay, southern Colombia and
northern Peru.

For Days 1-7 (15 – 21 October 2018), below-average precipitation is
predicted for portions of southwestern Colombia, northwestern Brazil,
central Bolivia, northern Paraguay and eastern Uruguay.  Above-average
precipitation is predicted for portions of central Brazil, southern
Paraguay, southern Argentina as well as southern Chile.


*For questions or comments, please contact:

Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)
Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)
Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)

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Wei Shi, Ph.D
Meteorologist
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
USA
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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