<div dir="ltr"><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent
variability of the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global
Monsoons website: <br>
<a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Global-Monsoon.shtml" style="color:blue">http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Global-Monsoon.shtml</a>
<br>
<br>
<b>HIGHLIGHTS:</b></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"><b>African Monsoons:</b></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">Rainfall
was below-average over many places in the Central African countries.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">Above-average
rainfall was observed over much of Ethiopia and the neighboring areas of South
Sudan and Kenya. Rainfall was also above-average over southern DRC, and parts
of Zambia and Mozambique.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">Week-1
outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall over western
Angola and the neighboring areas of western DRC, and southern Ethiopia and
coastal Tanzania. In contrast, there is an increased chance for below-average
rainfall over southern South Sudan, eastern CAR, northeastern DRC, Uganda,
Rwanda, and eastern South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland.</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"><b> </b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"><b>Asian-Australian
Monsoons:</b></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">For the past 90 days,
with the summer monsoon officially ending in September below normal rainfall deficits dominated much of central and western India
extending into parts of Pakistan, a small region in interior central eastern
China, Thailand, southeastern Australia,
Malaysia, Indonesia, and Papua New Guinea. Elsewhere, the rainfall amounts
received were at normal to slightly above normal levels, particularly in Bangladesh, Burma, Japan, Cambodia, the
Philippines, and Vietnam. For the past 30 days, severe rainfall deficits are noted
across large parts of central and northeastern India, coastal eastern China,
Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, large parts of Indonesian islands, Malaysia and New
Guinea. Overall, less (than normal) rainfall fell across the region. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">In this past week, rainfall amounts are generally below
normal over much of the region especially along coastal eastern India and
northeast India. The other monsoon over India, termed the Northeast Winter
monsoon (Oct-Dec) is expected to be onset over southern India in this upcoming
week according to the India Met. Dept.
Also according to IMD since the first of October till today, All India Rainfall
has been has been 48% below normal, but deep southern India’s rainfall has been
in excess. In the upcoming two weeks, the NCEP GFS model forecasts generally
below normal rainfall over almost the entire monsoon region, except over
southeastern China in the first week. </p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"><b>South American
Monsoons:</b></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">Long-term rainfall deficits are present over the Amazon
Basin and the Brazilian Plateau.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was
observed over portions of northwestern and the extreme southern Brazil, central
Colombia, northern Peru, Uruguay and eastern Argentina. Above-average
precipitation was observed over much of eastern Brazil, Paraguay, northern and
central Argentina, as well as southern Peru. </p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">For Days 1-7 (22 – 28 October 2018), below-average
precipitation is predicted for portions of northern and the extreme southern
Brazil, western Uruguay, northeastern Argentina and southern Chile. Above-average precipitation is predicted for
portions of southern Brazil, Paraguay, northern Argentina, northern and
southern Bolivia, northern Peru and eastern Ecuador.</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">*For questions or comments, please contact: </p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"><br>
<a href="mailto:Endalkachew.Bekele@noaa.gov">Endalkachew.Bekele@noaa.gov</a> (for the African monsoons)</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"><a href="mailto:Muthuvel.Chelliah@noaa.gov" style="color:blue">Muthuvel.Chelliah@noaa.gov</a>
(for Asian-Australian monsoons)</p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt;font-size:12pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"><a href="mailto:Wei.Shi@noaa.gov" style="color:blue">Wei.Shi@noaa.gov</a>
(for American monsoons and for general issues about the CPC Global Monsoons
products)</p><div><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_signature" data-smartmail="gmail_signature"><div cols="72"><strong>--------------------------------------------------------------------------- </strong></div>
<div cols="72">Wei Shi, Ph.D </div>
<div cols="72">Meteorologist </div>
<div cols="72">Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA </div>
<div cols="72">NCWCP Room 3116</div>
<div cols="72">5830 University Research Court </div>
<div cols="72">College Park, MD 20740 </div>
<div cols="72">USA </div>
<div cols="72">Phone: (301) 683-3440 </div>
<div cols="72"><strong>----------------------------------------------------------------------------</strong></div></div></div></div>