[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

[Wei Shi - NOAA Federal]

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons
website:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Global-Monsoon.shtml

*HIGHLIGHTS:*



*African Monsoons:*



Weekly rainfall surpluses exceeded 100mm over portions of Guinea-Conakry,
Sierra Leone, central Ghana, local areas in Togo and Benin, western Nigeria
and northern Cameroon.



Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
across much of Guinea-Conakry, southern Mali, Sierra Leone, northern
Liberia, northern Cote d'Ivoire, Burkina Faso and northern Ghana. Outlooks
also call for above-average rainfall over southern Nigeria and the
neighboring areas of southern Benin and western Cameroon, eastern Chad and
western Sudan. In contrast, there is an increased chance for below-average
rainfall over northeastern DRC, southern South Sudan, southwestern Ethiopia
and northern Uganda.



*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*



For the past 90 days, pockets of below normal rainfall deficits remain over
southeastern China,  central India, and  over almost all of  Australia, and
Papua New Guinea. Elsewhere, the rainfall amounts received were at normal
to slightly above normal levels, particularly along the Western Ghats,
northeast India and Burma. For the past 30 days, rainfall deficits are
noted in parts of peninsular southern India and eastern China. Elsewhere
rainfall received was at normal to above normal levels.



In this past week, rainfall amounts above normal levels along the Western
Ghats of peninsular India and in parts of north central India, but
deficient across most of eastern China, Korea, Japan, and large parts of
Malaysia and Indonesia. According to the India Met. Dept, since the first
of June till today, All India Rainfall has been almost normal with only 2 %
deficient.



In the upcoming two weeks, the NCEP GFS model forecast is predicting more
rainfall along the Western Ghats of Kerala,  below normal rainfall over
large parts of south central India, as well as along a stretch northeastern
China.





*North American Monsoons:*



Near-average rainfall has been observed over Arizona and western New Mexico
during the past week. Meanwhile, central and southern Mexico continued to
experience drier-than-normal conditions.



Rainfall accumulations over the past 30 days were slightly above-average
for Arizona and below-average for much of Mexico and eastern New Mexico.



NCEP/GFS Forecasts call for near-average precipitation for southwestern U.
S. and below-average precipitation for Mexico for the next two weeks.





*For questions or comments, please contact:


Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)

*---------------------------------------------------------------------------
   *
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Meteorologist
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
USA
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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