[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

[Wei Shi - NOAA Federal]

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons
website:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Global-Monsoon.shtml

*HIGHLIGHTS:*



*African Monsoons:*



Another week of moderate to locally heavy rainfall sustained moisture
surpluses over portions of Mali, Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana and central Chad.



Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over eastern Senegal, much of Guinea-Conakry, Sierra Leone, western
Liberia, southern Mali, northern Cote d'Ivoire, western Burkina Faso,
northern Nigeria and parts of southern Niger. In contrast, there is an
increased chance for below-average rainfall over northern
Congo-Brazzaville, northern DRC, southern CAR, southwestern South Sudan and
western Uganda.



*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*



For the past 90 days, below normal rainfall deficits remain over
southeastern China, across much of central India, over almost all of
Australia,
and Papua New Guinea. Elsewhere, the rainfall amounts received were at
normal to slightly above normal levels. For the past 30 days, rainfall
deficits are noted across central India and eastern China. Above normal
rainfall is noted over central China and along Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam.
Elsewhere rainfall received was at mixed levels.



In this past week, rainfall amounts above normal levels along the Western
Ghats of peninsular India., but deficient across most of eastern China and
large parts of Malaysia and Indonesia.  According to the India Met. Dept,
since the first of June till today, All India Rainfall has been 4 %
deficient.  In the upcoming two weeks, the NCEP GFS model forecast is
predicting below normal rainfall over south central, southern India, as
well as along a long stretch of southwestern to northeastern China.





*North American Monsoons:*



Consistent with NCEP/GFS week1 forecast from last Monday, above-average
rainfall has been observed over northwestern Mexico and southwestern U.S.
during the past week. Meanwhile, southern Mexico continued to experience
drier-than-normal conditions.



Rainfall accumulations over the past 30 days were slightly above-average
for southwestern U.S. and below-average for much of southern Mexico.



NCEP/GFS Forecasts call for near-average precipitation for southwestern U.
S. and northwestern Mexico, and below-average precipitation for central and
southern Mexico for the next two weeks.





*For questions or comments, please contact:


Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)

*---------------------------------------------------------------------------
   *
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Meteorologist
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
USA
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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