[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

[Wei Shi - NOAA Federal]

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons
website:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Global-Monsoon.shtml

*HIGHLIGHTS:*



*African Monsoons:*



Weekly rainfall surpluses exceeded 100mm over southeastern Nigeria.



Another week of moderate to locally heavy rainfall sustained moisture
surpluses over portions of Sudan.



Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for below-average rainfall
over parts of southern Mauritania, Senegal, The Gambia, and Guinea-Bissau.
There is also an increased chance for below-average rainfall across eastern
Liberia, Cote d'Ivoire, central and southern Ghana, southern Togo, southern
Benin, southern South Sudan, southeastern CAR, northeastern DRC, northern
Uganda and northwestern Kenya. In contrast, there is an increased chance
for above-average rainfall over portions of southeastern Mali, Burkina
Faso, western and southern Niger, northern Nigeria, parts of eastern Chad,
Sudan, Eritrea and northwestern Ethiopia.





*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*



For the past 90 days, pockets of below normal rainfall deficits remain over
southeastern China, central India, and  over almost all of  Australia, and
Papua New Guinea. Elsewhere, the rainfall amounts received were at normal
to slightly above normal levels, particularly along the Western Ghats,
northeast India, Burma, Cambodia, Laos, the Philippines, and Vietnam. For
the past 30 days, rainfall deficits are noted in parts of peninsular
southern India, large parts of Indonesian islands and Malaysia, and eastern
China. Elsewhere rainfall received was at normal to above normal levels.



In this past week, rainfall amounts above normal levels along the foothills
of the Himalayas in the Gangetic Plains extending eastward into northeast
India, Burma and adjoining Thailand. Thailand. But large deficits occurred
over central and southern India.  According to the India Met. Dept, since
the first of June till today, All India Rainfall has been 6 % deficient. In
the upcoming two weeks, the NCEP GFS model forecast is predicting below
normal rainfall over large parts of central and southern India, central and
eastern China.



*North American Monsoons:*



Near-average rainfall has been observed over Arizona and western New Mexico
during the past week. Meanwhile, much of Mexico continued to experience
drier-than-normal conditions.



Rainfall accumulations over the past 30 days were slightly above-average
for Arizona and below-average for much of Mexico and eastern New Mexico.



NCEP/GFS Forecasts call for near-average precipitation for southwestern U.
S. for the next two weeks.





*For questions or comments, please contact:


Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)
Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)
*---------------------------------------------------------------------------
   *
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Meteorologist
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
USA
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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