[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

Wei Shi - NOAA Federal wei.shi at noaa.gov
Mon Nov 21 18:06:33 UTC 2016

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons


*African Monsoons:*

Weekly rainfall surpluses exceeded 100mm over local areas in Kenya, whereas
below-average rainfall prevailed over northern DRC.

Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over eastern Angola, southeastern DRC, northern Zambia, eastern Uganda,,
southern Ethiopia, and Kenya. In contrast, there is an increased chance for
below-average rainfall over portions of Tanzania and northern Mozambique.

*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*

For the past 90 days, severe rainfall deficits are beginning to accrue all
over India, particularly southern peninsular India, where the deficits are
due both from the southwest summer monsoon that ended in September and the
emerging fall/winter northeast monsoon (Oct-Dec). Elsewhere the 90 day
rainfall amounts are at near or above normal levels For the past 30 days
the rainfall was much below normal over southeastern India, particularly
over coastal regions of Tamilnadu state. It should be noted and remembered
that Chennai & vicinity regions in this Tamilnadu state, received record
rainfall amounts in over a hundred years, causing extensive damage and loss
of life, during last December in 2015.  Rainfall  deficits are also
beginning to emerge over parts of northern and eastern Australia.
Elsewhere, the rainfall amounts are above normal, particularly over eastern

In this past week, south eastern India, the region of winter northeast
monsoon, continued to receive zero or  below normal rainfall. According to
the India Met. Dept. (IMD), with almost a month and a half into the 3-month
long northeast winter monsoon (Oct-Dec),  the rainfall for the whole
country was highly deficient by about -39 % across the country. Drought or
near drought conditions exist in the southern India especially in the state
of Tamilnadu. In the next couple of weeks the NCEP GFS model continues to
predict almost no rainfall over southern peninsular India, thus
contributing to further severe rainfall deficits in the region.

*South American Monsoons:*

Long-term rainfall deficits are present over Brazilian Plateau and the
extreme southern Brazil.

During the last 7 days (14 - 20 Nov 2016), below-average precipitation was
observed over northern Peru, western Brazil and eastern Argentina.
Above-average precipitation was observed over northern Argentina and
southeastern Brazil.

For 21 - 27 Nov 2016, below-average precipitation is predicted over much of
Brazil, western Colombia and southern Chile. Above-average precipitation is
predicted for eastern Colombia and western Venezuela.

*For questions or comments, please contact:

Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)

Wei Shi, Ph.D
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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