[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

Wei Shi - NOAA Federal wei.shi at noaa.gov
Mon Nov 28 16:57:51 UTC 2016

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons


*African Monsoons:*

Above-average rainfall was observed over portions of Ethiopia and Kenya,
and local areas in southern Somalia.

Suppressed rainfall prevailed over many places in Angola, DRC and Tanzania.

Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over portions of southern Gabon, southern Congo-Brazzaville, southern DRC,
northern Angola, northern Zambia, western Tanzania, and northern
Madagascar. In contrast, there is an increased chance for below-average
rainfall over portions of southeastern Angola and eastern Namibia, southern
Zambia, much of Botswana, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Lesotho, Swaziland, and
southern Mozambique.

*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*

For the past 90 days, severe rainfall deficits are beginning to accrue over
large parts of India, particularly southern peninsular India, where week
after week, for the many weeks now, the rainfall has been very much below
normal. Mild deficits are also emerging all across Australia. Elsewhere the
90 day rainfall amounts are at near or well above normal levels. For the
past 30 days the rainfall was much below normal over southeastern India,
particularly over coastal regions of Tamilnadu state. With almost two of
the three months (Oct-Dec) gone so far, the northeast winter Monsoon
(Oct-Dec) has pretty much failed so far this year. Interestingly, during
December last year, the same (now dry) regions of Tamilnadu state, received
historic record rainfall amounts in over a hundred years, causing extensive
damage and loss of life,.  Rainfall  deficits are also beginning to emerge
over parts of northern and eastern Australia. Elsewhere, the rainfall
amounts are above normal, particularly over eastern China.

In this past week, south eastern India, the region of winter northeast
monsoon, continued to receive zero or  below normal rainfall. According to
the India Met. Dept. (IMD), with almost two months into the 3-month long
northeast winter monsoon (Oct-Dec),  the rainfall for the whole country was
very highly deficient by about -42 % across the country. With the failure
of the winter monsoon so far, drought conditions exist in the southern
India especially in the state of Tamilnadu. In the next couple of weeks the
NCEP GFS model is finally predicting some rainfall, but only in the first
week, over southern peninsular India. Severe rainfall shortfalls are also
predicted over northern and eastern Australia.

*South American Monsoons:*

Long-term rainfall deficits are present over Brazilian Plateau and the
extreme southern Brazil.

During the last 7 days (21 - 27 Nov 2016), below-average precipitation was
observed over northern Peru, central and southern Brazil and eastern
Bolivia. Above-average precipitation was observed over northern Argentina
and south-central Brazil.

For 28 Nov – 04 Dec 2016, below-average precipitation is predicted over
much of Brazil, northern Bolivia, Uruguay and northeastern Argentina.
Above-average precipitation is predicted for north and central Colombia,
western Peru, southern Bolivia and southeastern Brazil.

*For questions or comments, please contact:

Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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