[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

Wei Shi - NOAA Federal wei.shi at noaa.gov
Mon Nov 14 18:00:28 UTC 2016

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons


*African Monsoons:*

Weekly total rainfall remained below-average over many places in the
Central Africa countries. Suppressed rainfall was also observed over
portions of Kenya and southern Somalia.

Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over southern Cameroon, southwestern CAR, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon,
Congo-Brazzaville, northwestern Angola, western DRC, southeastern Ethiopia,
eastern Kenya and southern Somalia. In contrast, there is an increased
chance for below-average rainfall over parts of northeastern DRC, southern
South Sudan, and western Kenya.

*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*

For the past 90 days, severe rainfall deficits are beginning to accrue all
over India, particularly southern peninsular India, where the deficits are
due both from the southwest summer monsoon that ended in September and the
emerging fall/winter northeast monsoon (Oct-Dec). Elsewhere the 90 day
rainfall amounts are at near or above normal levels. For the past 30 days
the rainfall was much below normal over southern India. Small deficits are
also beginning to emerge over parts of northern and eastern Australia.
Elsewhere, the rainfall amounts are above normal, particularly over eastern

In this past week, south eastern India, the region of winter northeast
monsoon, received below normal rainfall. Philippines and Malaysia also
experienced below normal rainfall.. According to the India Met. Dept.
(IMD), with almost a month and a half into the short 3-month long northeast
winter monsoon (Oct-Dec) in the southern peninsular India,  the rainfall
for the whole of India was highly deficient by about -35 % across the
country. Drought or near drought conditions exist in the southern India
especially in the state of Tamilnadu.  In the next couple of weeks the NCEP
GFS model continues to predict severe rainfall deficits over southern India
and eastern Australia, but above normal rainfall amounts over eastern China
and parts of Malaysia and Indonesia.

*South American Monsoons:*

Long-term rainfall deficits are present over Brazilian Plateau.

During the last 7 days (07 - 13 Nov 2016), below-average precipitation was
observed over southern Venezuela, northwestern Brazil, Uruguay and southern
Chile. Above-average precipitation was observed over northern Colombia and
central Brazil.

For 14 - 20 Nov 2016, below-average precipitation is predicted over
northwestern South America, southern Brazil, Uruguay and southern Chile.
Above-average precipitation is predicted for central and eastern Brazil.

*For questions or comments, please contact:

Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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