[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

Wei Shi - NOAA Federal wei.shi at noaa.gov
Mon Jul 18 15:47:35 UTC 2016

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons


*African Monsoons:*

Weekly total rainfall surpluses exceeded 100mm over parts of
Guinea-Conakry, Sierra Leone, and eastern Sudan, while suppressed rainfall
prevailed across portions of the Gulf of Guinea countries.

Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over eastern and southern Senegal, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea-Conakry, Sierra
Leone, portions of Liberia, northern Cote d'Ivoire, Burkina Faso, Ghana,
Togo, Benin, portions of Niger, western Nigeria, portions of South Sudan
and Ethiopia. In contrast, there is an increased chance for below-average
rainfall over portions of northern DRC and much of Uganda.

*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*

For the past 90 days rainfall amounts are showing a mixed pattern over the
monsoon region with slightly deficient conditions over parts of central
western and central eastern India, Thailand, Laos, and Cambodia, and parts
of Papua New Guinea, but above normal elsewhere. Particularly, eastern
China west of Shanghai had received much above normal rainfall. For the
past 30 days the rainfall situation was deficient over Gujarat and central
eastern India, southern and northeastern China. Elsewhere, rainfall was at
generally at near normal or above normal levels. Central eastern China near
the Anhui province had received above  normal rainfall which caused
excessive flooding in that region.

In this past week, monsoon rainfall is above normal over north central
India, but deficient to the south. Elsewhere, rainfall was generally below
normal. According to the India Met. Dept. (IMD), as of today, the monsoon
rainfall has been slightly above normal  by 3 % across the country. In the
next couple of weeks the NCEP GFS model is predicting overall below normal
over the region, except along northeast India and parts of eastern China.

*North American Monsoons:*

Below-average rainfall has been observed over southwestern U.S. and
northwestern Mexico during the past week.

Rainfall accumulations over the past 30 days were below-average over
eastern-central and southern Mexico.

NCEP/GFS Forecasts call for slightly below-average (wk1) to near-average
(wk2) precipitation for southwestern U.S. during the next two weeks.

*South American Monsoons:*

The annual summary for the 2015-2016 South American Monsoon wet season is
available on the CPC website at:


*For questions or comments, please contact:

Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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