[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

Wei Shi - NOAA Federal wei.shi at noaa.gov
Mon Jul 11 15:35:05 UTC 2016

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons


*African Monsoons:*

Another week of moderate to locally heavy rainfall sustained moisture
surpluses across Guinea-Conakry, Sierra Leone, Liberia and parts of Cote
d’Ivoire. In contrast, suppressed rainfall prevailed over many places in
the Equatorial Africa countries.

Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over much of Guinea-Conakry, Sierra Leone, Liberia, western Cote d'Ivoire,
southern Niger, northern Nigeria, Chad, portions of northern CAR, western
and southern Sudan, western Ethiopia and Eritrea. In contrast, there is an
increased chance for below-average rainfall over northern DRC and Uganda.

*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*

For the past 90 days rainfall amounts are showing a mixed pattern over the
monsoon region with slightly deficient conditions over parts of central
western and central eastern India, Thailand, Laos, and Cambodia, and parts
of Papua New Guinea. For the past 30 days the rainfall situation was
deficient over Gujarat and central eastern India. Elsewhere, rainfall was
generally at near normal or above normal levels.

In this past week, monsoon rainfall is above normal over central India,
where it was deficient before. Weekly rainfall was also high along the
western Ghats, and along southwestern Burma. Elsewhere, rainfall was below
normal especially across the Indonesia. According to the India Met. Dept.
(IMD), as of today, the monsoon rainfall has been slightly above normal  by
2 % across the country.  In the next couple of weeks the NCEP GFS model is
predicting more rainfall over northern India and eastern China in the  first
week, continued more heavy rainfall over eastern China and relatively less
rainfall over much of India in the second week.

*North American Monsoons:*

Near-average rainfall has been observed over southwestern U.S. during the
past week, while drier-than-average conditions continued across central and
southern Mexico, especially along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico.

Rainfall accumulations over the past 30 days were below-average over
central and southern Mexico.

NCEP/GFS Forecasts call for slightly below-average (wk1) to near-average
(wk2) precipitation for southwestern U.S. during the next two weeks.

*South American Monsoons:*

The annual summary for the 2015-2016 South American Monsoon wet season is
available on the CPC website at:


*For questions or comments, please contact:

Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

<Vernon.Kousky at noaa.gov>Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for
general issues about the CPC Global Monsoons products)

Wei Shi, Ph.D
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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