[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

Wei Shi - NOAA Federal wei.shi at noaa.gov
Mon Jan 11 16:26:34 UTC 2016

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons


*African Monsoons (AFMS.ppt):*

Weekly total rainfall exceeded 100mm over portions of western and northern
Angola, southern Tanzania, northern Mozambique and northern Madagascar,
whereas suppressed rainfall continued to prevail over many places in
Southern Africa countries.

Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over portions of western Angola, southern Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, much of
Tanzania, northern Malawi, parts of northern Mozambique, portions of South
Africa. In contrast, there is an increased chance for below-average
rainfall over southern Malawi, eastern Zimbabwe, and central and southern

*Asian-Australian Monsoons (AAMS.ppt):*

For the past 90 days rainfall amounts have generally been below normal over
many parts of India, across the southern and east Asia monsoon region,
particularly over Indonesia, Papa New Guinea, Malaysia, Laos, Vietnam, and
Thailand consistent with the ongoing strong El Nino conditions. Australia
is also relatively dry. However, parts of southeastern India, Sri Lanka,
and large parts of southeastern China have received above normal rainfall
amounts. The Northeast winter monsoon season (Oct-Dec) over southern India,
and the tropical cyclone season impacting the same region is over. However,
the larger winter monsoon (Dec-Feb) impacting southeast Asia is underway,
and overall, the rainfall over the region has been weak due to the ongoing
strong El Nino in the central and eastern tropical Pacific ocean. For the
past 30 days, rainfall was at near normal levels over much of the region
except for below normal over eastern Indonesia and Papa New Guinea. For
this period, southeastern China, northern Philippines, parts of Sumatra,
Borneo and northern Australia had received above normal rainfall.

In this past week, rainfall over the entire region was generally at or
slightly below normal levels, except over southeastern China, where it was
above normal. Northern Australia and the island of New Guinea received much
below rainfall. In the next couple of weeks, the NCEP GFS model is
predicting generally below normal for the whole region, except for random
regions of above normal rainfall here and there.

*South American Monsoons (SAMS.ppt):*

Large rainfall deficits continue over the Amazon Basin, and most of Central
and Southeast Brazil.

During the last 7 days (4-10 January 2016), below-average precipitation was
observed over portions of the Amazon Basin and Southeast Brazil.  Above-average
precipitation was observed over parts of Central and Northeast Brazil,
northern Argentina, and portions of Paraguay.

For 11-17 January 2016, below-average rainfall is predicted for most of
northern South America, southern Brazil, Uruguay, and northeastern
Argentina. Above-average rainfall is predicted for most of Central and
Southeast Brazil.

*For questions or comments, please contact:

Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Vernon.Kousky at noaa.gov (for South American monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for North American monsoon update and for general issues
about the CPC Global Monsoons products)
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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