[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

Wei Shi - NOAA Federal wei.shi at noaa.gov
Mon Jan 4 16:49:45 UTC 2016

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons


*African Monsoons (AFMS.ppt):*

Moderate to locally heavy rainfall resulted in moisture surpluses over
parts of Angola and Namibia, western Botswana, southeastern Tanzania,
northern Mozambique, and portions of Madagascar. In contrast, suppressed
rainfall prevailed over much of Zambia, Zimbabwe, Malawi and portions of

Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over portions of Angola, southern DRC, northeastern Zambia, and portions of
southern Tanzania. In contrast, there is an increased chance for
below-average rainfall over much of Tanzania, southeastern Angola, parts of
northern Namibia, western Zambia, Zimbabwe, portions of southern Malawi,
central Mozambique, and portions of Madagascar.

*Asian-Australian Monsoons (AAMS.ppt):*

For the past 90 days rainfall amounts have generally been below normal over
many parts of India, across the southern and east Asia monsoon region,
particularly over Indonesia, Papa New Guinea, Malaysia, Laos, Vietnam, and
Thailand consistent with the ongoing strong El Nino conditions. Australia
is also relatively dry. However, parts of southeastern India, Sri Lanka,
and large parts of southeastern China have received above normal rainfall
amounts. October-December NE monsoon over southeastern India was
particularly very active. Also, it is interesting to note that for the past
90 days, unlike other parts of SE Asia, almost entire China is at normal or
above normal levels of rainfall, particularly over  eastern China. For the
past 30 days, rainfall was considerably above normal over southernmost
India and southeastern China, and over parts of Malaysia and Indonesia.
Also for the past 30 days, the vast India plus China region is generally at
near or above normal levels of received rainfall. The Northeast Winter
monsoon has brought near to above normal rain to southern India,
particularly the southern most state of India, the Tamilnadu and across Sri
Lanka. Southeastern China and northern Australia also received above normal
rainfall amounts for the 30 days period. Northern Australia received above
normal rainfall so far, but western and central eastern coastal Australia
received less rainfall.

In this past week, rainfall over the entire region was generally at or
slightly below normal levels.  Northwestern Australia and the island of New
Guinea particularly received much below rainfall. In the next couple of
weeks, the NCEP GFS model is also predicting above normal to parts of
southeastern China and maritime Indonesian, but below normal rainfall to
northern Australia,  the island of New Guinea and the Philippines.

*South American Monsoons (SAMS.ppt):*

Rainfall deficits increased over the Amazon Basin, and most of Central and
Southeast Brazil.

During the last 7 days (28 December 2015-3 January 2016), below-average
precipitation was observed over Bolivia and portions of Central and
Southeast Brazil.  Above-average precipitation was observed over parts of
the western Amazon Basin, and portions of Paraguay, central Argentina and
southern Brazil.

For 4-10 January 2016, above-average precipitation is predicted for Central
and southern Northeast Brazil, and portions of Bolivia, Paraguay, northern
Argentina and extreme southern Brazil. Below-average precipitation is
predicted for portions of the central and eastern Amazon Basin and
Southeast Brazil.

*For questions or comments, please contact:

Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Vernon.Kousky at noaa.gov (for South American monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for North American monsoon update and for general issues
about the CPC Global Monsoons products)
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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