[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

Wei Shi - NOAA Federal wei.shi at noaa.gov
Tue Jan 19 12:55:19 UTC 2016

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons


*African Monsoons (AFMS.ppt):*

Weekly total rainfall exceeded 100mm over portions of Tanzania, northern
Mozambique and northern Madagascar, whereas suppressed rainfall prevailed
over central and southern Mozambique.

Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over eastern Namibia, western South Africa, southeastern DRC and portions
of Tanzania. In contrast, there is an increased chance for below-average
rainfall over parts of eastern Botswana, northeastern South Africa,
southern Malawi, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, and southern Madagascar.

*Asian-Australian Monsoons (AAMS.ppt):*

For the past 90 days rainfall amounts have generally been below normal over
many parts of India, across the southern and east Asia monsoon region,
particularly over Indonesia, Papa New Guinea, Malaysia, Laos, Vietnam, and
Thailand consistent with the ongoing strong El Nino conditions. Australia
is also relatively dry. However, parts of southeastern India, Sri Lanka,
and large parts of southeastern China have received above normal rainfall
amounts. For the past 30 days, rainfall was at near normal levels over much
of the region except for below normal over eastern Indonesia and Papa New
Guinea. For this period, southeastern China, northern Philippines, parts of
Sumatra, Borneo and northern Australia had received above normal rainfall.

In this past week, rainfall over the entire region was generally at or
slightly below normal levels, except over southeastern China, where it was
above normal. Northern Australia and the island of New Guinea received much
below rainfall. In the next couple of weeks, the NCEP GFS model is again
predicting above normal rainfall over southeastern China, below normal
rainfall over Papa New Guinea, and Australia and a mixed pattern for the
areas in between.

*South American Monsoons (SAMS.ppt):*

Recent rains reduced long-term deficits over most of Central Brazil.

During the last 7 days (11-17 January 2016), below-average precipitation
was observed over portions of the Amazon Basin, southern Brazil, Uruguay
and northeastern Argentina.  Above-average precipitation was observed over
parts of Central, Northeast, and Southeast Brazil.

For 18-25 January 2016, above-average rainfall is predicted for
east-central and portions of Southeast Brazil. Below-average precipitation
is predicted for most of the central and eastern Amazon Basin, Southwest
and southern Brazil, Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay and northern Argentina.

*For questions or comments, please contact:

Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Vernon.Kousky at noaa.gov (for South American monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for North American monsoon update and for general issues
about the CPC Global Monsoons products)

Wei Shi, Ph.D
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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