[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

[Wei Shi - NOAA Federal]

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons
website:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Global-Monsoon.shtml

*HIGHLIGHTS:*



*African Monsoons (AFMS.ppt):*



Weekly total rainfall surpluses exceeded 200mm over portions of northern
Namibia, local areas in northern Mozambique, and northern Madagascar.



Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for below-average rainfall
over eastern Gabon, Congo-Brazzaville, northern DRC, Rwanda, Uganda,
southeastern Angola, northern Namibia, western Zambia, portions of eastern
Zimbabwe, southern Malawi, and Mozambique. In contrast, there is an
increased chance for above-average rainfall over western Angola, portions
of eastern Zambia, northern Malawi, and southern Tanzania.





*Asian-Australian Monsoons (AAMS.ppt):*



For the past 90 days rainfall amounts was generally at near normal levels
across India, was a mixed pattern across the southern and east Asia monsoon
region, the Philippines and over Indonesia. However, eastern China had
received excessively above normal rainfall, while Papa New Guinea and
northern Australia had generally received below normal rainfall, except
sporadically there were some above normal spots. For the past 30 days the
rainfall situation is very similar to the recent 90 days, except that the
rainfall deficit over the Philippines, Papa New Guinea and northern
Australia is more severe.



In this past week, rainfall over the entire has been generally below
normal, including southeastern China consistent with the forecast where it
was consistently above normal for the past several weeks (see 90 day and 30
maps).  Rainfall over northern Australia was also below normal this past
week. In the next couple of weeks, the NCEP GFS model is predicting
generally below normal rainfall across the entire winter monsoon regions,
particularly over Australia, consistent with the ongoing El Nino condition
in the tropical equatorial Pacific.





*South American Monsoons (SAMS.ppt):*



Recent rains reduced long-term deficits over Central Brazil.



During the last 7 days (1-7 February2016), below-average precipitation was
observed over Central and southeastern Brazil, Uruguay, and neighboring
portions of Argentina and southern Brazil.  Above-average precipitation was
observed over portions of Peru, Bolivia and Paraguay.



For 8-14 February 2016, below-average precipitation is predicted for the
Amazon Basin, Central Brazil and portions of Southeast Brazil.
Above-average precipitation is predicted for portions of Ecuador, Peru,
Northeast Brazil and northern Argentina.




*For questions or comments, please contact:


Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Vernon.Kousky at noaa.gov (for South American monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for North American monsoon update and for general issues
about the CPC Global Monsoons products)


*---------------------------------------------------------------------------
   *
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Meteorologist
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
USA
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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