<div dir="ltr">
<p class="MsoNormal">The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent
variability of the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global
Monsoons website: <br>
<a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Global-Monsoon.shtml">http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Global-Monsoon.shtml</a>
<br>
<br>
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal">HIGHLIGHTS:</b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> </b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal">African Monsoons (AFMS.ppt):</b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> </b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"">Weekly
total rainfall surpluses exceeded 200mm over portions of northern Namibia,
local areas in northern Mozambique, and northern Madagascar.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman""> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"">Week-1
outlooks call for an increased chance for below-average rainfall over eastern
Gabon, Congo-Brazzaville, northern DRC, Rwanda, Uganda, southeastern Angola,
northern Namibia, western Zambia, portions of eastern Zimbabwe, southern
Malawi, and Mozambique. In contrast, there is an increased chance for
above-average rainfall over western Angola, portions of eastern Zambia,
northern Malawi, and southern Tanzania.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman""> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:12pt"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family:
"Times New Roman""> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal">Asian-Australian
Monsoons (AAMS.ppt):</b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">For the past 90 days rainfall amounts was generally at near
normal levels across India, was a mixed pattern across the southern and east
Asia monsoon region, the Philippines and over Indonesia. However, eastern China
had received excessively above normal rainfall, while Papa New Guinea and
northern Australia had generally received below normal rainfall, except
sporadically there were some above normal spots. For the past 30 days the
rainfall situation is very similar to the recent 90 days, except that the
rainfall deficit over the Philippines, Papa New Guinea and northern Australia
is more severe.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">In this past week, rainfall over the entire has been
generally below normal, including southeastern China consistent with the
forecast where it was consistently above normal for the past several weeks (see
90 day and 30 maps).<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Rainfall over
northern Australia was also below normal this past week. In the next couple of
weeks, the NCEP GFS model is predicting generally below normal rainfall across
the entire winter monsoon regions, particularly over Australia, consistent with
the ongoing El Nino condition in the tropical equatorial Pacific.
</p><p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal">South American
Monsoons (SAMS.ppt):</b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> </b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Recent rains reduced long-term deficits over Central Brazil.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">During the last 7 days (1-7 February2016), below-average
precipitation was observed over Central and southeastern Brazil, Uruguay, and
neighboring portions of Argentina and southern Brazil.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Above-average precipitation was observed over
portions of Peru, Bolivia and Paraguay.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal">For 8-14 February 2016, below-average precipitation is
predicted for the Amazon Basin, Central Brazil and portions of Southeast
Brazil. Above-average precipitation is predicted for portions of Ecuador, Peru,
Northeast Brazil and northern Argentina.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><br>
*For questions or comments, please contact: </p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><br>
<a href="mailto:Endalkachew.Bekele@noaa.gov">Endalkachew.Bekele@noaa.gov</a> (for the African monsoons)</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a href="mailto:Muthuvel.Chelliah@noaa.gov">Muthuvel.Chelliah@noaa.gov</a> (for Asian-Australian monsoons)</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a href="mailto:Vernon.Kousky@noaa.gov">Vernon.Kousky@noaa.gov</a>
(for South American monsoons)</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a href="mailto:Wei.Shi@noaa.gov">Wei.Shi@noaa.gov</a>
(for North American monsoon update and for general issues about the CPC Global
Monsoons products)</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
<div><div class="gmail_signature"><div cols="72"><b>--------------------------------------------------------------------------- </b></div>
<div cols="72">Wei Shi, Ph.D </div>
<div cols="72">Meteorologist </div>
<div cols="72">Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA </div>
<div cols="72">NCWCP Room 3116</div>
<div cols="72">5830 University Research Court </div>
<div cols="72">College Park, MD 20740 </div>
<div cols="72">USA </div>
<div cols="72">Phone: (301) 683-3440 </div>
<div cols="72"><b>----------------------------------------------------------------------------</b></div></div></div>
</div>