[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

Wei Shi - NOAA Federal wei.shi at noaa.gov
Mon Dec 12 18:01:42 UTC 2016

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons


*African Monsoons:*

Below-average rainfall prevailed over many places in the Central and
Southern Africa countries.

Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over portions Gabon, Congo-Brazzaville, northwestern DRC, western Zambia,
Botswana, Zimbabwe, eastern South Africa, southern Mozambique, and southern
Madagascar. In contrast, there is an increased chance for below-average
rainfall over northeastern DRC, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, northern
Mozambique, and northern Madagascar.

*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*

For the past 90 days, severe rainfall deficits remain over large parts of
India, particularly over  southern peninsular India, where week after week,
for the many weeks now, the rainfall has been very much below normal over
the southeastern state of Tamilnadu. Mild deficits are also emerging all
across Australia. Elsewhere the 90 day rainfall amounts are at near or well
above normal levels. For the past 30 days the rainfall was much below
normal over southeastern India, particularly over coastal regions of
Tamilnadu state..  Rainfall  deficits are also beginning to emerge over
many parts of northern and eastern Australia and eastern Papua New Guinea.
Elsewhere in the region, the rainfall amounts are above normal,
particularly over southeastern China.

In this past week, towards the tail end, severe tropical cyclonic storm
Vardah is impacting southeast coast of India with heavy rainfall, winds and
devastation, where it has been very dry. According to the India Met. Dept.
(IMD), for more than two months into the 3-month long northeast winter
monsoon (Oct-Dec),  the rainfall for the whole country continues to stay
highly deficient by about -44 % across the country. With the failure of the
winter monsoon so far, severe drought conditions exist in the southern
India especially in the state of Tamilnadu. In the next couple of weeks the
NCEP GFS model is predicting almost little or no rainfall thus contributing
further to the already drought conditions in the southern peninsular India.
Less rainfall is also forecast over northeastern Australia and large parts
of Indonesia.

*South American Monsoons:*

Long-term rainfall deficits are present over Brazilian Plateau and the
extreme southern Brazil.

During the last 7 days (05 -11 Dec 2016), below-average precipitation was
observed over much of Brazil, Bolivia, Uruguay and eastern Argentina.
Above-average precipitation was observed over portions of Colombia, eastern
Peru, northern Argentina, Paraguay and southern Brazil.

For 12-18 Dec 2016, below-average precipitation is predicted across Bolivia
and southern Brazil, as well as over northern Peru, southern Colombia and
much of Venezuela.  Above-average precipitation is predicted for central
Colombia, western Peru and much of the northern Brazil.

*For questions or comments, please contact:

Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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