[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

Wei Shi - NOAA Federal wei.shi at noaa.gov
Mon Dec 19 16:57:23 UTC 2016

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons


*African Monsoons:*

Weekly rainfall surpluses exceeded 100mm over parts of eastern Zimbabwe and
central Mozambique, whereas suppressed rainfall prevailed over portions of
Angola, southern DRC, much of Tanzania and northern Mozambique.

Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over central and eastern Angola, Zambia, northern Zimbabwe, central
Mozambique and southern Madagascar. In contrast, there is an increased
chance for below-average rainfall over portions of Tanzania, northern
Mozambique, and southern Botswana and portions of South Africa.

*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*

For the past 90 days, severe rainfall deficits remain over southern
peninsular India and over large parts of central, northern and eastern
Australia. Elsewhere, the rainfall is above normal levels over much of the
region. For the past 30 days the rainfall was  below normal over extreme
southern peninsular India and many parts of Australia. Southeastern China
and  the Philippines received above normal rainfall.

In this past week,  severe tropical cyclonic storm Vardha brought
unprecedented heavy rains over parts of southern peninsular India, and much
relief to the drought like conditions there. According to the India Met.
Dept. (IMD), with the Northeast winter monsoon(OND) coming to an end soon
in the next couple of weeks,  the rainfall for southern India continues to
stay highly deficient by about -43 % across the country. With the failure
of the winter monsoon so far, severe drought conditions continue exist in
the southern India especially in the state of Tamilnadu. In the next couple
of weeks the NCEP GFS model is predicting almost little or no rainfall thus
contributing further to the already drought conditions in the southern
peninsular India but heavy rainfall over western Australia, particularly in
the northwestern territories.

*South American Monsoons:*

Long-term rainfall deficits are present over the Amazon Basin, central
Brazil and the extreme southern Brazil.

During the last 7 days (12 -18 Dec 2016), below-average precipitation was
observed over central Colombia, much of central and southern Brazil,
Bolivia, Paraguay and northern Argentina. Above-average precipitation was
observed over northern Peru, northern and eastern Brazil.

For 19-25 Dec 2016, below-average precipitation is predicted over much of
Bolivia, northern Argentina, central and southeastern Brazil, as well as
western Venezuela.  Above-average precipitation is predicted for portions
of Colombia, Peru, northern Brazil, Uruguay and southern Chile.

*For questions or comments, please contact:

Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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