[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

Wei Shi - NOAA Federal wei.shi at noaa.gov
Mon Dec 5 16:41:06 UTC 2016

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons


*African Monsoons:*

Moderate to locally heavy rainfall resulted in moisture surpluses over
southern Ethiopia, and local areas in northern Kenya and southern Somalia.
In contrast, below-average rainfall prevailed across many places in
Southern Africa countries.

Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over portions Angola, southern DRC, northern Zambia, and portions western
Tanzania. In contrast, there is an increased chance for below-average
rainfall over northeastern DRC, Uganda, parts of Kenya, Tanzania, southern
Zambia, and portions of Botswana and Zimbabwe.

*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*

For the past 90 days, severe rainfall deficits have developed over large
parts of India, particularly southern peninsular India, where week after
week, for the many weeks now, the rainfall has been very much below normal
over the southeastern state of Tamilnadu. Mild deficits are also emerging
all across Australia. Elsewhere the 90 day rainfall amounts are at near or
well above normal levels. For the past 30 days the rainfall was much below
normal over southeastern India, particularly over coastal regions of
Tamilnadu state.  Rainfall deficits are also beginning to emerge over parts
of northern and eastern Australia and eastern Papua New Guinea. Elsewhere
in the region, the rainfall amounts are above normal, particularly over
southeastern China.

In this past week, for the first time in many weeks, far southern
peninsular India received some rainfall, consistent with the forecast made
last week. According to the India Met. Dept. (IMD), with almost two months
into the 3-month long northeast winter monsoon (Oct-Dec),  the rainfall for
the whole country was very highly deficient by about -44 % across the
country. With the failure of the winter monsoon so far, severe drought
conditions exist in the southern India especially in the state of
Tamilnadu. Moreover, in the next couple of weeks the NCEP GFS model is
predicting almost no rainfall thus contributing further to the already
drought conditions in the southern peninsular India. Less rainfall is also
forecast over northeastern Australia and large parts of Indonesia.

*South American Monsoons:*

Long-term rainfall deficits are present over Brazilian Plateau and the
extreme southern Brazil.

During the last 7 days (28 Nov- 04 Dec 2016), below-average precipitation
was observed over much of Brazil, northern Bolivia, northeastern Argentina
and southern Chile. Above-average precipitation was observed over Colombia,
eastern Ecuador, Paraguay and southern Brazil.

For 05-11 Dec 2016, below-average precipitation is predicted over much of
Brazil, northern Bolivia, southwestern Colombia, Ecuador, Uruguay and
eastern Argentina. Above-average precipitation is predicted for eastern
Colombia, northwestern Peru, southern Paraguay and the extreme southern

*For questions or comments, please contact:

Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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