[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

Wei Shi - NOAA Federal wei.shi at noaa.gov
Mon Sep 21 15:31:46 UTC 2015

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons


*African Monsoons (AFMS.ppt):*

Weekly total rainfall exceeded 100mm over western Burkina Faso, portions of
Nigeria and southwestern Cameroon.

Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over southern Senegal, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea-Conakry, Sierra Leone, and
Liberia. In contrast, there is an increased chance for below-average
rainfall over portions of Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana Togo and Benin.

*Asian-Australian Monsoons (AAMS.ppt):*

For the past 90 days rainfall amounts have generally been below normal
across the southern and east Asia monsoon region consistent with the
ongoing strong El Nino conditions. However, northeast India, Bangladesh,
Burma, and parts of eastern China have received above normal rainfall
amounts. For the past 30 days, rainfall was considerably below normal over
northern/central India, Thailand, Cambodia, southern Vietnam and across
Indonesian Archipelago. According to the India Met. Dept. (IMD), the SW
summer monsoon rainfall over India as whole since the 1st of June, as of
today September 21st, is now 14 % below normal, slightly better than it was
(16%) last week.  With less than two weeks left before the official end of
the Indian summer monsoon, these conditions are expected to only very
slightly improve due to the predicted rainfall in the southern states.

In this past week the above normal rainfall amounts across central India
helped the dire rainfall situation in that region.  Elsewhere rainfall was
below normal. In the next couple of weeks, the NCEP GFS model is predicting
a near complete retreat of the Indian summer monsoon from much of India,
generally less rainfall across much of south and east Asia consistent with
strong El Nino conditions, but slightly more rainfall over southern India.

*South American Monsoons (SAMS.ppt):*

Rainfall deficits are present over many areas of northern South America.

During the last 7 days (14-20 September 2015), below-average precipitation
was observed over a large portion of northern South America, and Brazil
(20-25S).  Above-average precipitation was observed over parts of southern

For 21-27 September 2015, below-average rainfall is indicated for northern
South America and portions of Southeast Brazil between 20S and 25S.
Slightly above-average rainfall is predicted for portions of central and
southern Peru, Bolivia and Uruguay.

*For questions or comments, please contact:

Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Vernon.Kousky at noaa.gov (for South American monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for North American monsoon update and for general issues
about the CPC Global Monsoons products)
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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