[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

Wei Shi - NOAA Federal wei.shi at noaa.gov
Mon Sep 28 17:01:49 UTC 2015

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons


*African Monsoons (AFMS.ppt):*

Portions of the Sahel region received above-average rainfall, whereas
moisture deficits prevailed over many places of the Gulf of Guinea

Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over southeastern Ethiopia and the neighboring places of northeastern Kenya
and Somalia. In contrast, there is an increased chance for below-average
rainfall over southern Ghana, Togo, Benin, Togo, western Nigeria, eastern
South Sudan Republic, portions of western Ethiopia and northern Uganda.

*Asian-Australian Monsoons (AAMS.ppt):*

For the past 90 days rainfall amounts have generally been below normal over
large parts of India, across the southern and east Asia monsoon region
consistent with the ongoing strong El Nino conditions. However, northeast
India, Bangladesh, Burma, and parts of eastern China have received above
normal rainfall amounts. For the past 30 days, rainfall was considerably
below normal over northern/central India, Thailand, Cambodia, southern
Vietnam and across Indonesian Archipelago. According to the India Met.
Dept. (IMD), the SW summer monsoon rainfall over India as whole since the
1st of June, as of today September 28st, is now,  still 14 % below normal,
about the same as last week.  With the Indian summer monsoon season
officially over in a few days at the end September, these below normal
conditions and deficit numbers are expected to stay.

In this past week, as the southwest summer monsoon season is coming to a
close,  except along northwestern India and Pakistan border, rainfall
amounts were generally at or mostly below normal levels across the monsoon
region. In the next couple of weeks, as the summer monsoon season will have
officially ended in a dermatological sense, the NCEP GFS model is
predicting some outbursts of monsoon rain on its way out over parts of
southern/northeastern India and eastern China.

*South American Monsoons (SAMS.ppt):*

Rainfall deficits increased over many areas of northern South America.

During the last 7 days (21-27 September 2015), below-average precipitation
was observed over a large portion of northern South America.  Above-average
precipitation was observed over parts of southern Brazil and Uruguay.

For 28 September -4 October 2015, below-average rainfall is predicted for
many areas in northern South America and extreme southern Brazil.
Above-average rainfall is predicted for portions of Peru, Bolivia and most
of Paraguay.

*For questions or comments, please contact:

Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Vernon.Kousky at noaa.gov (for South American monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for North American monsoon update and for general issues
about the CPC Global Monsoons products)

Wei Shi, Ph.D
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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