[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

Wei Shi - NOAA Federal wei.shi at noaa.gov
Mon Dec 14 16:53:09 UTC 2015

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons


*African Monsoons (AFMS.ppt):*

Suppressed rainfall continued to prevail over portions of Southeastern
Africa, whereas much of Tanzania, western Kenya and southern DRC received
above-average rainfall.

Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
across much of East and Southeastern Africa. In contrast, there is an
increased chance for below-average rainfall over northern
Congo-Brazzaville, northern DRC, portions of Botswana and eastern South

*Asian-Australian Monsoons (AAMS.ppt):*

For the past 90 days rainfall amounts have generally been below normal over
many parts of India, across the southern and east Asia monsoon region,
particularly over Indonesia, Papa New Guinea, Malaysia, Laos, Vietnam, and
Thailand consistent with the ongoing strong El Nino conditions. Australia
is also relatively dry. However, parts of southeastern India, Sri Lanka,
and large parts of southeastern China have received above normal rainfall
amounts. It is interesting to note that for the past 90 days, unlike other
parts of SE Asia, almost entire China is at normal or above normal levels
of rainfall. For the past 30 days, rainfall was considerably above normal
over southeastern India and southeastern China, and over parts of Malaysia
and Indonesia. Also for the past 30 days, the vast India plus China region
is at near or above normal levels of received rainfall. The Northeast
Winter monsoon has brought a lot of rain to southern India, particularly
the southern most state of India, the Tamilnadu and across Sri Lanka.

In this past week, rainfall over the entire region was generally at or
slightly below normal levels except over some parts of Malaysia, Indonesia
and southeastern China.  Southeastern India, had a bit of reprieve this
past week, from the heavy rain it had been receiving from the highly active
NE monsoon in the previous several weeks.  In the next couple of weeks, the
NCEP GFS model is also predicting rainfall that is highly sporadic across
the region, with scattered rainfall in the southern districts of Tamilnadu
and Kerala states in India, below normal rainfall to much of Malaysia,
Indonesia and Philippines,  and above normal rainfall over southeastern
China and across northern Australia.

*South American Monsoons (SAMS.ppt):*

Rainfall deficits continue to increase over the Amazon Basin.

During the last 7 days (7-13 December 2015), below-average precipitation
was observed over most of the Amazon Basin, eastern Bolivia, and central
and southern Northeast Brazil.  Above-average precipitation was observed
over portions of Paraguay, and southern Brazil.

For 14-20 December 2015, below-average precipitation is predicted for the
Amazon Basin, central  Brazil, and eastern Brazil between 10S and 22S.
Above –average precipitation is predicted for portions of southern Brazil,
Paraguay and northeastern Argentina.

*For questions or comments, please contact:

Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Vernon.Kousky at noaa.gov (for South American monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for North American monsoon update and for general issues
about the CPC Global Monsoons products)
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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