[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

Wei Shi - NOAA Federal wei.shi at noaa.gov
Mon Dec 7 18:00:30 UTC 2015

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons


*African Monsoons (AFMS.ppt):*

Suppressed rainfall prevailed across Southeastern Africa, whereas portions
of western Ethiopia, South Sudan and Uganda received above-average rainfall.

Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over western Angola, Rwanda, Burundi, and much of Tanzania. In contrast,
there is an increased chance for below-average rainfall over northern
Congo-Brazzaville, northern DRC, portions of Zambia, Malawi, much of
Zimbabwe, and Mozambique.

*Asian-Australian Monsoons (AAMS.ppt):*

For the past 90 days rainfall amounts have generally been below normal over
many parts of India, across the southern and east Asia monsoon region,
particularly over Indonesia, Papa New Guinea, Malaysia, Laos, Vietnam, and
Thailand reasonably consistent with the ongoing strong El Nino conditions.
Australia is also relatively dry. However, parts of southeastern India, Sri
Lanka, and large parts of southeastern China have received above normal
rainfall amounts. It is interesting to note that for the past 90 days,
unlike other parts of SE Asia, almost entire China is at normal or above
normal levels of rainfall. For the past 30 days, rainfall was considerably
above normal over southeastern India and southeastern China, and over parts
of Malaysia and Indonesia. Also for the past 30 days, the vast India plus
China region is at near or above normal levels of received rainfall. The
Northeast Winter monsoon has brought a lot of rain to southern India,
particularly the southern most state of India, the Tamilnadu and across Sri

In this past week, rainfall over the entire region was generally at or
slightly below normal levels except over some parts of Malaysia and
Indonesia. The NE monsoon rains along coastal southeastern  Indian state of
Tamilnadu is at above normal level. Southeastern China has also received a
lot of rainfall. This rainfall pattern over SE India and China  has been
continuing for a few weeks now. In the next couple of weeks, the NCEP GFS
model is also predicting somewhat active Northeast Monsoon along coastal
southern state of Tamilnadu  and more rainfall over southeast China as well
as over parts of Malaysia and Indonesia.

*South American Monsoons (SAMS.ppt):*

Rainfall deficits continue to increase over the Amazon Basin.

During the last 7 days (30 November-6 December 2015), below-average
precipitation was observed over most of the Amazon Basin, and northeastern
Argentina.  Above-average precipitation was observed over portions of
Paraguay, and southern and southeastern Brazil.

For 7-13 December 2015, below-average precipitation is predicted for the
Amazon Basin, portions of Peru, eastern Bolivia and southern Northeast
Brazil. Above-average rainfall is predicted for southern Paraguay, and
portions of northern Argentina and southern Brazil.

*For questions or comments, please contact:

Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Vernon.Kousky at noaa.gov (for South American monsoons)
Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for North American monsoon update and for general issues
about the CPC Global Monsoons products)
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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