[Ncep.hmon] Harvey secondary eyewall

Bin Liu - NOAA Affiliate bin.liu at noaa.gov
Fri Aug 25 20:12:02 UTC 2017


Looking at the latest several forecast cycles, HWRF is doing a fantastic
job in the intensity forecast for the intensity evolution of the storm.

The inner-core DA (self-cycled Hybrid DA with various recon data) together
with the HWRF's vortex initialization behave perfectly well.

And agree, we should consider ground-based radar data, should be very
useful especially for landfall storms.

Cheers!

Bin


---
Bin Liu
NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC
5830 University Research CT
Cubicle 2026
College Park, MD 20740
Tel: (301)-683-3763
Email: Bin.Liu at noaa.gov



On Fri, Aug 25, 2017 at 4:04 PM, Vijay Tallapragada (NOAA Federal) <
vijay.tallapragada at noaa.gov> wrote:

> I guess only NAM and HRRR assimilate ground-based radar data.  Something
> for HWRF to consider in the future.
>
> On 08/25/2017 03:00 PM, Jili Dong - NOAA Affiliate wrote:
>
> Just curious if radial wind from any ground-based radar goes into the
> model?
>
> Several coastal radars have coverage for the storm since last night
> (espically KBRO and KPRC). It could provide good cross-beam wind coverage
> to analyze the change of storm wind structure during secondary eyewall
> formation, either for assimilation or verification.
>
>
> Jili
>
>
>
> On Aug 25, 2017, at 11:20 AM, Bin Liu - NOAA Affiliate <bin.liu at noaa.gov>
> wrote:
>
> Yes, I was also looking at this. Very impressive, and HWRF has several
> cycles predicted similar double eyewall structures.
>
> https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=BRO&loop=yes
>
> Bin
>
> ---
> Bin Liu
> NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC
> 5830 University Research CT
> Cubicle 2026
> College Park, MD 20740
> Tel: (301)-683-3763 <%28301%29%20683-3763>
> Email: Bin.Liu at noaa.gov
>
>
>
> On Fri, Aug 25, 2017 at 11:17 AM, Sergio Abarca <sergio.abarca at noaa.gov>
> wrote:
>
>> All,
>> It looks like* Harvy has indeed a concentric eyewall -with a very narrow
>> moat-*. See attached the radar image of the Brownsville radar.
>>
>> I list below 5 days worth of cycles that included a forecasting time
>> valid at 082506. HWRF forecasted a concentric eyewalls (as diagnosed by a
>> secondary wind maxima in the azimuthal average of wind, considering a prior
>> radial expansion of the tangential wind field) at least in 50% of these
>> cycles and 75% of the cycles that have Harvey initialized in the Gulf of
>> Mexico. Those cycles initialized outside of it, including the Caribbean had
>> a harder time forecasting it.
>> Sergio
>>
>> All Harvey cycles with a forecasting hour valid at 082506. Tose with
>> secondary eyewall or hints of it are *highlighted in bold face listing
>> the time when the secondary eyewall was most apparent*:
>> 082506
>> 082500
>> *082418 at f15 (very narrow moat)*
>> *082412 at f24*
>> *082406 has hints of it*
>> *082400 at f24*
>> *082318 at f18*
>> *082312 at f42*
>> 082306-can’t display
>> *082300 at f48*
>> 082218
>> 082212
>> *082206 - h54*
>> 082200
>> *082118 at f72*
>> 082112
>> 082106
>> *082018 at f102*
>> 082012
>> 082006
>>
>>
>>
>
> --
> ******************************************************
>  Dr. Vijay Tallapragada
>  Chief, Modeling and Data Assimilation Branch &
>  Acting Chief, Model Physics Group
>  Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA/DOC
>  5830 University Research Court  Room 2053
>  College Park, Maryland 20740, USA
>  Tel/Fax: (301)683-3672 <(301)%20683-3672>; Cell: (202)679-5629 <(202)%20679-5629>
> ******************************************************
>
>
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