<div dir="ltr">Looking at the latest several forecast cycles, HWRF is doing a fantastic job in the intensity forecast for the intensity evolution of the storm.<div><br></div><div>The inner-core DA (self-cycled Hybrid DA with various recon data) together with the HWRF's vortex initialization behave perfectly well.</div><div><br></div><div>And agree, we should consider ground-based radar data, should be very useful especially for landfall storms.</div><div><br></div><div>Cheers!</div><div><br></div><div>Bin</div><div><br></div></div><div class="gmail_extra"><br clear="all"><div><div class="gmail_signature" data-smartmail="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div><span style="font-size:12.8000001907349px"><div><span style="font-size:12.8000001907349px">---</span><br></div><div><span style="font-size:12.8000001907349px">Bin Liu</span><br></div></span><div style="font-size:12.8000001907349px">NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC</div><div><span style="font-size:12.8000001907349px">5830 University Research CT</span></div><div><span style="font-size:12.8000001907349px">Cubicle 2026</span><br><span style="font-size:12.8000001907349px">College Park, MD 20740</span><br><span style="font-size:12.8000001907349px">Tel: </span>(301)-683-3763<br><span style="font-size:12.8000001907349px">Email: <a href="mailto:Bin.Liu@noaa.gov" target="_blank">Bin.Liu@noaa.gov</a></span></div></div><div><br></div><div><br></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>
<br><div class="gmail_quote">On Fri, Aug 25, 2017 at 4:04 PM, Vijay Tallapragada (NOAA Federal) <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:vijay.tallapragada@noaa.gov" target="_blank">vijay.tallapragada@noaa.gov</a>></span> wrote:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">
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<p>I guess only NAM and HRRR assimilate ground-based radar data.
Something for HWRF to consider in the future.<br>
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<div class="m_-5686994057818755304moz-cite-prefix">On 08/25/2017 03:00 PM, Jili Dong -
NOAA Affiliate wrote:<br>
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<div>Just curious if radial wind from any ground-based radar
goes into the model?</div>
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<div>Several coastal radars have coverage for the storm since
last night (espically KBRO and KPRC). It could provide good
cross-beam wind coverage to analyze the change of storm wind
structure during secondary eyewall formation, either for
assimilation or verification.</div>
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<div>Jili</div>
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On Aug 25, 2017, at 11:20 AM, Bin Liu - NOAA Affiliate <<a href="mailto:bin.liu@noaa.gov" target="_blank">bin.liu@noaa.gov</a>> wrote:<br>
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<div dir="ltr">Yes, I was also looking at this. Very
impressive, and HWRF has several cycles predicted
similar double eyewall structures.
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<div><a href="https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=BRO&loop=yes" target="_blank">https://radar.weather.gov/rada<wbr>r.php?product=N0Z&rid=BRO&loop<wbr>=yes</a><br>
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<div>Bin</div>
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<div><span style="font-size:12.8px">---</span><br>
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<div><span style="font-size:12.8px">Bin
Liu</span><br>
</div>
</span>
<div style="font-size:12.8px">NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC</div>
<div><span style="font-size:12.8px">5830
University Research CT</span></div>
<div><span style="font-size:12.8px">Cubicle
2026</span><br>
<span style="font-size:12.8px">College
Park, MD 20740</span><br>
<span style="font-size:12.8px">Tel: </span><a href="tel:%28301%29%20683-3763" value="+13016833763" target="_blank">(301)-683-3763</a><br>
<span style="font-size:12.8px">Email:
<a href="mailto:Bin.Liu@noaa.gov" target="_blank">Bin.Liu@noaa.gov</a></span></div>
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<div class="gmail_quote">On Fri, Aug 25, 2017 at 11:17
AM, Sergio Abarca <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:sergio.abarca@noaa.gov" target="_blank">sergio.abarca@noaa.gov</a>></span>
wrote:<br>
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<div>All,</div>
<div>It looks like<b> Harvy has indeed a
concentric eyewall -with a very narrow moat-</b>.
See attached the radar image of the Brownsville
radar. </div>
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<div>I list below 5 days worth of cycles that
included a forecasting time valid at 082506.
HWRF forecasted a concentric eyewalls (as
diagnosed by a secondary wind maxima in the
azimuthal average of wind, considering a prior
radial expansion of the tangential wind field)
at least in 50% of these cycles and 75% of the
cycles that have Harvey initialized in the Gulf
of Mexico. Those cycles initialized outside of
it, including the Caribbean had a harder time
forecasting it. </div>
<div>Sergio</div>
<div><br>
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<div>All Harvey cycles with a forecasting hour
valid at 082506. Tose with secondary eyewall or
hints of it are <b>highlighted in bold face
listing the time when the secondary eyewall
was most apparent</b>:</div>
<div>082506</div>
<div>082500</div>
<div><b>082418 at f15 (very narrow moat)</b></div>
<div><b>082412 at f24</b></div>
<div><b>082406 has hints of it</b></div>
<div><b>082400 at f24</b></div>
<div><b>082318 at f18</b></div>
<div><b>082312 at f42</b></div>
<div>082306-can’t display</div>
<div><b>082300 at f48</b></div>
<div>082218 </div>
<div>082212 </div>
<div><b>082206 - h54</b></div>
<div>082200 </div>
<div><b>082118 at f72</b></div>
<div>082112 </div>
<div>082106 </div>
<div><b>082018 at f102</b></div>
<div>082012</div>
<div>082006 </div>
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<img id="m_-5686994057818755304gmail-m_662452832148289047m_-6743121248958029762C288080D-97A0-441F-BF62-5EA5798811CA"></div>
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</div></div><span class="HOEnZb"><font color="#888888"><pre class="m_-5686994057818755304moz-signature" cols="72">--
******************************<wbr>************************
Dr. Vijay Tallapragada
Chief, Modeling and Data Assimilation Branch &
Acting Chief, Model Physics Group
Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA/DOC
5830 University Research Court Room 2053
College Park, Maryland 20740, USA
Tel/Fax: <a href="tel:(301)%20683-3672" value="+13016833672" target="_blank">(301)683-3672</a>; Cell: <a href="tel:(202)%20679-5629" value="+12026795629" target="_blank">(202)679-5629</a>
******************************<wbr>************************
</pre>
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