[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

[Wei Shi - NOAA Federal]

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons
website:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Global-Monsoon.shtml

*HIGHLIGHTS:*



*African Monsoons:*



Weekly rainfall surpluses exceeded 100mm over parts of southern Nigeria.



Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for below-average rainfall
over much of Senegal, southwestern Mali and Guinea-Bissau. In contrast,
there is an increased chance for above-average rainfall over many places in
the Gulf of Guinea and Central Africa countries, and portions of Sudan and
Ethiopia.



*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*



For the past 90 days, the rainfall pattern was overall above normal between
10 N and 30 N. South of 10N, the rainfall received has been below normal,
especially over the Indonesian archipelago. Even though it is not quite the
main rainfall season so far for Australia, southeastern Australia also
received less than normal rainfall. Central eastern China also received
less rainfall than normal. For the past 30 days, much of India except
northern India, received above normal rainfall. Elsewhere, the whole region
received below normal rainfall except south China Sea countries Vietnam,
Cambodia, Burma which received more rainfall.



In this past week, regions west of 100E received more rainfall than normal
and regions east of 100E received less than normal rainfall. As of today
since the first of June, the India Met. Dept. reported that the overall All
India Monsson Rainfall index was slightly above normal (+10%). The 2019
southwest Indian summer monsoon officially ends today. For deep southern
peninsular India, the northeast winter monsoon (Oct-Dec) is expected to
start soon, and a near normal season is forecast for the season by South
Asian Climate Outlook Forum(SASCOF). For the next two weeks, the NCEP GFS
model forecasts slightly above normal rainfall over southern and eastern
India, less rainfall over central and western India, and generally below
normal over southeast Asia except for parts of Indonesia and southern China.



*South American Monsoons:*



During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over
portions of northwestern and the extreme southern Brazil, Uruguay,
northeastern Argentina, southern Chile, southern Paraguay, Bolivia and
southern Colombia.  Above-average precipitation was observed over small
portions of northwestern and southeastern Brazil, as well as northeastern
Peru and northern Colombia.



For 30 September – 06 October 2019, below-average precipitation is
predicted over portions of the far northern South America as well as
southern Brazil and southern Chile. Above-average precipitation is
predicted for portions of the extreme southern Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay,
northern Bolivia, central Peru and southern Colombia.





*For questions or comments, please contact:


Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov  (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)
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   *
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Meteorologist
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
USA
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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