[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

[Wei Shi - NOAA Federal]

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons
website:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Global-Monsoon.shtml

*HIGHLIGHTS:*



*African Monsoons:*



Weekly rainfall totals exceeded 100mm over many parts of Sierra Leone, and
portions of Nigeria, CAR and Ethiopia.



Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for below-average rainfall
over much Senegal, Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, and southwestern Mauritania. In
contrast, there is an increase chance for above-average rainfall over
southern Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Cote d’Ivoire, southern Nigeria,
Cameroon, western CAR, Congo and northeastern DRC.



*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*



For the past 90 days, the rainfall pattern was overall above normal between
10 N and 30 N. South of 10N, the rainfall received has been below normal,
especially over the Indonesian archipelago. Even though it is not quite the
main rainfall season so far for Australia, southeastern Australia also
received less than normal rainfall. For the past 30 days the rainfall
pattern is somewhat similar to the 90 day pattern, except that below normal
pattern is noticeably present along the foothills of the Himalayas in
northern India as well as over northeastern China centered around 30N.



In this past week, rainfall over eastern India was mostly near to below
normal. Eastern China and Indonesia also experienced much below normal
rainfall conditions. As of today since the first of June, the India Met.
Dept. reported that the overall All India Monsson Rainfall index was
slightly above normal (+5%). The Indian summer monsoon officially ends in
about a week forecast period form today. It is expected that overall the
ISMR (Indian summer monsoon rainfall) will end with normal to slightly
above normal rainfall range. For the next two weeks, the NCEP GFS model
forecasts near to slightly above normal rainfall over much of India and
small parts of east central China and very small part of  Borneo and
Sumatra islands, but below normal rainfall everywhere else.





*South American Monsoons:*



During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over
portions of northwestern and southern Brazil, northeastern Argentina and
northeastern Peru.  Above-average precipitation was observed over small
portions of northern and central Brazil, as well as central Colombia.



For Days 1-7 (23 - 29 Sep 2019), below-average precipitation is predicted
over portions of central and the extreme southern Brazil, Uruguay,
northeastern Argentina, southern Paraguay, Bolivia, Venezuela, northern
Colombia and southern Chile. Above-average precipitation is predicted for
portions of southern Brazil and central Colombia.





*For questions or comments, please contact:


Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov  (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)
*---------------------------------------------------------------------------
   *
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Meteorologist
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
USA
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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