[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

[Wei Shi - NOAA Federal]

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons
website:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Global-Monsoon.shtml

*HIGHLIGHTS:*



*African Monsoons:*



Moisture surpluses of over 100 mm were observed over the eastern part of
Liberia, southwestern Côte d’Ivoire, southern Nigeria, western and northern
Cameroon, southeastern Sudan, central Uganda, central Kenya and
northeastern Madagascar.



Week-1 outlook shows an increased chance for above average rainfall over
parts of southern Mali, southern Niger, southern Nigeria, southern Chad,
parts of Uganda, South Sudan, western Kenya, northeastern DRC and
southwestern Ethiopia.





*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*



For the past 90 days, below normal rainfall deficits  dominated all over
India, Korea, Japan, Thailand, and Papua New Guinea.  In fact, the rainfall
over the whole region has been deficient for the past 90 days, except in a
few limited regions. For the past 30 days the rainfall amounts received
were quite across India, by as much as 32 % below normal over much of
India, and southern China bordering Burma and north eastward. However,
southeastern China received above normal rainfall, as well as large parts
of Indonesia.



In this past week, over almost the whole region, the rainfall amounts
continued to be below normal, especially eastern central India. Due the
delayed and now highly deficient southwest summer monsoon rainfall over
India, large parts of India are suffering rom scorching heat and much below
normal rainfall, bordering on drought conditions. Major populated cities
such as Chennai in southern India continue to suffer from drinking water.
For the next two weeks, the NCEP GFS model forecasts continued below normal
rainfall for large parts of India, but northeast India, Burma & vicinity,
and southeastern China is expected to get more rainfall than normal.





*North American Monsoons:*



Below-average rainfall has been observed over much of northwestern and
southern Mexico during the past week.



Rainfall accumulations over the past 30 days were below-average for much of
the west coast of Mexico.



NCEP/GFS Forecasts call for near-average precipitation for northwestern
Mexico and southwestern US during the next two weeks.







*For questions or comments, please contact:


Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov  (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)
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   *
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Meteorologist
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
USA
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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