[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

[Wei Shi - NOAA Federal]

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons
website:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Global-Monsoon.shtml

*HIGHLIGHTS:*



*African Monsoons:*



Weekly rainfall surpluses exceeded 50mm over parts of Zambia, southern
Tanzania, northern Malawi, and local areas in Mozambique and northern
Madagascar.



Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for below-average rainfall
across southwestern Angola, northwestern Namibia, parts of eastern DRC,
Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, southern Kenya, much of Tanzania, Malawi, and
northern Mozambique. There is an increased chance for above-average
rainfall across eastern Botswana, much Zimbabwe, southern Zambia, central
and southern Mozambique, northeastern South Africa and Swaziland.





*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*



For the past 90 days, below normal rainfall deficits  dominated deep
southern peninsular India, Japan and almost all of Australia. Elsewhere,
the rainfall amounts received were at normal to slightly above normal
levels, particularly in southeastern China, and Indonesia. For the past 30
days, seasonal rainfall fell over Kashmir, Nepal, and across southeast Asia
in general. But large parts of Australia continue to be dry (as well as
hot!) except in the northeast over Queensland. Elsewhere, rainfall is mixed.



In this past week, almost no rainfall fell across India except near Kashmir
and Nepal. This is not the rainy season for the rest of India and monsoon
has moved over to southeast Asia centered over Indonesia impacting rainfall
there and nearby northern Australia. While rest of northern Australia
continues to be dry, large parts of Queensland and southeastern sections of
New South wales got good rainfall amounts.  In the upcoming two weeks, the
NCEP GFS model forecasts above normal rainfall in parts of the Middle East,
Kashmir area of northern India, southeastern China and parts of Indonesia,
but continued below normal rainfall elsewhere particularly over northern
Australia, the Philippines and Papua New Guinea.





*South American Monsoons:*



Long-term rainfall deficits are present over the Amazon Basin and the
Brazilian Plateau, as well as the extreme southern Brazil.



During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over much
of west-central and southern Brazil, northern Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay
and Bolivia.  Above-average precipitation was observed over portions of
northwestern and eastern Brazil, northern Peru and eastern Ecuador.



For Days 1-7 (11 – 17 Feb 2019), below-average precipitation is predicted
for much of northern and central Brazil, Uruguay, central Argentina,
southern Peru and northern Ecuador.  Above-average precipitation is
predicted for southern Brazil, southern Paraguay, southern Bolivia and
southern Ecuador.





*For questions or comments, please contact:


Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov  (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)
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   *
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Meteorologist
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
USA
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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