[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

[Wei Shi - NOAA Federal]

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons
website:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Global-Monsoon.shtml

*HIGHLIGHTS:*



*African Monsoons:*



Rainfall was above-average along the Gulf of Guinea coast, and portions of
DRC Angola and South Africa.


Suppressed rainfall prevailed across southeastern Africa.



Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over portions of Angola, parts of southern DRC, eastern Zambia, Malawi,
southern Tanzania, and northern Mozambique. There is an increased chance
for below-average rainfall across parts of southern Angola, northern
Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, northern South Africa, Mozambique, and
southern Madagascar.





*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*



For the past 90 days, below normal rainfall deficits dominated deep
southern peninsular India, Japan and almost all of Australia. Elsewhere,
the rainfall amounts received were at normal to slightly above normal
levels, particularly in southeastern China, and Indonesia. For the past 30
days, seasonal rainfall fell over Kashmir, in and near northern Laos
bordering China, and in pockets across southeast Asia in general. Large
parts of Australia continue to be dry (as well as hot!). Elsewhere,
rainfall is mixed.



In this past week, almost no rainfall fell across India except near
Kashmir. This is not the rainy season for the rest of India and monsoon has
moved over to southeast Asia centered over Indonesia impacting rainfall
there and nearby northern Australia. While rest of northern Australia
continues to be dry, north central parts of Queensland got good rainfall
amounts, which is a welcome relief.  In the upcoming two weeks, the NCEP
GFS model forecasts generally below normal rainfall over much of northern
Australia, except over Queensland and parts of western Indonesia in the
first week, and over southeastern China in the second week, where above
normal rainfall is expected.





*South American Monsoons:*



Long-term rainfall deficits are present over the Amazon Basin and the
Brazilian Plateau, as well as the extreme southern Brazil.



During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over much
of Brazil, eastern central Argentina, Paraguay and southern Chile.
Above-average precipitation was observed over portions of northwestern
Brazil, northern Argentina, Bolivia, northern Peru, Ecuador and southern
Colombia.



For Days 1-7 (04 – 10 Feb 2019), below-average precipitation is predicted
for much of western and southern Brazil, Uruguay, northern Argentina,
southeastern Paraguay, Bolivia, southern Chile, central Peru and western
Ecuador.  Above-average precipitation is predicted for eastern Brazil,
northern and southern Peru and southern Colombia.





*For questions or comments, please contact:


Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov  (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)
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   *
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Meteorologist
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
USA
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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