[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

[Wei Shi - NOAA Federal]

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons
website:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Global-Monsoon.shtml

*HIGHLIGHTS:*



*African Monsoons:*



Weekly rainfall surpluses exceeded 100mm over parts of northeastern
Ethiopia and eastern Tanzania.



Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over northern Angola, southern and the far northern DRC, southern CAR, and
southwestern Ethiopia. In contrast, there is an increased chance for
below-average rainfall over northern Uganda, much of Kenya, northern
Tanzania, southern Somalia, and northern Madagascar.





*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*



For the past 90 days, below normal rainfall deficits dominated deep
southern coastal peninsular India, Korea, Japan, Malaysia, parts of New
Guinea island of Indonesia and Papua New Guinea,  and almost all of
Australia, particularly north western regions. Elsewhere, the rainfall
amounts received were at normal to slightly above normal levels,
particularly in southeastern China, Kashmir India, parts of the Middle
East, and Indonesia. For the past 30 days, slightly above normal rainfall
fell over the Middle East, in the border area between New Guinea and Papua
New Guinea, and parts of eastern Australia. Elsewhere it is below normal to
near normal.



In this past week, overall, below normal rainfall fell across most of the
region under consideration.  For the next two weeks, the NCEP GFS model
forecasts slightly above normal rainfall over the middle east, southeastern
China, and over large parts of Indonesian archipelago, and below normal
rainfall over Australia.





*South American Monsoons:*



Long-term rainfall deficits are present over the Amazon Basin and the
Brazilian Plateau.



During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over
portions of northwestern and central Brazil, Uruguay, northeastern
Argentina and southern Chile.  Above-average precipitation was observed
over portions of northeastern and southern Brazil, northern Argentina,
Paraguay, Bolivia and western Colombia.



Week-1 outlooks from NCEP/GFS call for below-average precipitation over
portions of northwestern and southern Brazil, Uruguay, northeastern
Argentina, western Bolivia, much of Peru and Ecuador, and above-average
precipitation is predicted for portions of northern and central Brazil.





*For questions or comments, please contact:


Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov  (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)
*---------------------------------------------------------------------------
   *
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Meteorologist
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
USA
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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