[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

[Wei Shi - NOAA Federal]

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons
website:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Global-Monsoon.shtml

*HIGHLIGHTS:*



*African Monsoons:*



Another week of moderate to locally heavy rainfall sustained moisture
surpluses over many places in the far western West Africa. Above-average
rainfall was also observed over parts of Angola, DRC, southern Ethiopia and
parts of Somalia.



Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over much of Guinea-Conakry, Sierra Leone, Liberia, western Cote d’Ivoire,
Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, and parts of Congo-Brazzaville and DRC. In
contrast, there is an increased chance for below-average rainfall over
northeastern Angola and southwestern DRC.



*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*



For the past 90 days,  with the summer monsoon officially ending today,
below normal rainfall deficits appeared over southwestern and interior
southern peninsular India, a small region in interior central eastern
China, southeastern  Australia, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Papua New Guinea.
Elsewhere, the rainfall amounts received were at normal to slightly above
normal levels, particularly in Bangladesh, Burma, Japan, Cambodia, Laos,
the Philippines, and Vietnam. For the past 30 days, rainfall deficits are
noted across large parts of south central and western India, in small parts
of eastern China, Thailand, Burma, large parts of Indonesian islands and
Malaysia. Elsewhere rainfall received was at normal to above normal levels.



In this past week, rainfall amounts are generally below normal everywhere
in the region, large deficits occurred over southern/peninsular and central
India and most of Indonesia.. According to the India Met. Dept, since the
first of June till today, All India Rainfall has been has been 7.5 %
deficient.  In the upcoming two weeks, the NCEP GFS model forecasts below
normal rainfall over much of central India and southeast Asian countries
around South China Sea region, and Indonesian islands. But more rain is
forecast over far northern and deep southern peninsular India, Burma, and
in the second week over southeastern China. The summer monsoon over India
officially comes close by end of today.





*South American Monsoons:*



Long-term rainfall deficits are present over the Amazon Basin, the
Brazilian Plateau and the extreme southern Brazil.



During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over
portions of northwestern, west-central and southern Brazil, as well as
northern Peru. Above-average precipitation was observed over portions of
the extreme southern Brazil, northern Bolivia, southern Paraguay, Uruguay
and eastern Argentina.



For Days 1-7 (01 – 07 October 2018), below-average precipitation is
predicted for portions of west-central Colombia, southern and eastern
Venezuela, northern and central Brazil, central-east Argentina and southern
Chile.  Above-average precipitation is predicted for portions of the
extreme southern Brazil, northern and southern Colombia, northern Peru and
southern Paraguay.





*For questions or comments, please contact:


Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)


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   *
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Meteorologist
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
USA
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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