[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

[Wei Shi - NOAA Federal]

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons
website:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Global-Monsoon.shtml

*HIGHLIGHTS:*



*African Monsoons:*



Rainfall was below-average over many places in central and southern Africa.



Another week of moderate to locally heavy rainfall sustained moisture
surpluses over portions of Ethiopia.



Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over portions of DRC, Rwanda, Burundi, southern Uganda, western Tanzania,
southern Zimbabwe, eastern Botswana, eastern South Africa, Lesotho and
Swaziland. In contrast, there is an increased chance for below-average
rainfall over northern Congo-Brazzaville, northern DRC, southern CAR,
portions of Angola and Namibia, western Zambia and western Botswana.





*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*



For the past 90 days, below normal rainfall deficits  dominated much of
peninsular India, a small region in interior central eastern China,
Thailand, large parts of east central and eastern  Australia, Malaysia, the
Philippines, parts of Indonesia, and Papua New Guinea. Elsewhere, the
rainfall amounts received were at normal to slightly above normal levels,
particularly in Burma, Japan, southeast China, Korea, and Vietnam. For the
past 30 days, severe rainfall deficits are noted across large parts of
south east and coastal east India, Japan, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, large
parts of Indonesian islands, Malaysia, the Philippines, and coastal eastern
Australia. Overall, less (than normal) rainfall fell across the region.



In this past week, rainfall amounts are generally near normal to above
normal over much of the region especially along southern and coastal
eastern India, where the winter NE monsoon inhabits now. Severe tropical
Cyclone Kaja devastated coastal and interior TamilNadu state of southern
India.  Also according to the India Met. Dept.(IMD) since the first of
October till today, All India Rainfall has been has only been 50% below
normal according to the IMD.  In the upcoming two weeks, the NCEP GFS model
forecasts generally below normal rainfall over almost the entire monsoon
region, except over southeastern China, southern India and coastal South
China sea countries. On the top of the severe cyclonic storm Kaja that
devastated Tamilnadu state in southern India during last week, another
possible cyclonic storm in the Bay of Bengal is likely to impact the region
in the next few days.





*South American Monsoons:*



Long-term rainfall deficits are present over the Amazon Basin.



During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over much
of Brazil, central Colombia, northeastern Peru and eastern Bolivia.
Above-average precipitation was observed over portions of the extreme
southern Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, eastern Argentina, Ecuador, as well as
western Colombia.



For Days 1-7 (19 - 25 Nov 2018), below-average precipitation is predicted
for portions of Venezuela, southern Peru, east-central and the extreme
southern Brazil, Uruguay and central Argentina.  Above-average
precipitation is predicted for much of west-central and southern Brazil,
northern Bolivia, northern Paraguay and northern Peru.





*For questions or comments, please contact:


Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov  (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)
*---------------------------------------------------------------------------
   *
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Meteorologist
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
USA
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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