[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

[Wei Shi - NOAA Federal]

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons
website:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Global-Monsoon.shtml

*HIGHLIGHTS:*



*African Monsoons:*



Central Tanzania, western Mozambique and local areas in northern
Madagascar, southern Nigeria and western Gabon experienced moisture
surpluses of over 100 mm.



Moisture deficits of over 25 mm were observed in southern Gabon, southern
Congo-Brazzaville, northern DRC, local areas in southern Uganda, central
Kenya, southern Somalia, Angola, western Zambia, northern Zimbabwe,
northeastern South Africa and western Madagascar.



Week-1 and week-2 forecasts call for an increased chance for weekly
rainfall totals to exceed 50 mm over southern Gabon, southern
Congo-Brazzaville, southern DRC, northern Angola, northern Zambia and
portions of Madagascar. In addition, week-1 forecast indicates an increased
chance for weekly rainfall totals to exceed 50 mm over local areas in
Mozambique.





*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*



For the past 90 days, below normal rainfall deficits  dominated much of
peninsular India, a small region in interior central eastern China,
Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia large parts of east central and eastern
Australia, Malaysia, the Philippines, parts of Indonesia, and Papua New
Guinea. Elsewhere, the rainfall amounts received were at normal to slightly
above normal levels, particularly in Burma, Japan, southeast China, and
Korea. For the past 30 days, severe rainfall deficits are noted across
large parts of south east and coastal east India, Japan, Thailand, Laos,
Cambodia, large parts of Indonesian islands, Malaysia, the Philippines, and
coastal north eastern Australia. Overall, less (than normal) rainfall fell
across the region.



In this past week, rainfall amounts are generally near normal to slightly
below normal fell across over much of the region.  Also according to the
India Met. Dept.(IMD) since the first of October till today, All India
Rainfall has been has only been 48% below normal according to the IMD. In
the upcoming two weeks, the NCEP GFS model forecasts generally below normal
rainfall over almost the entire monsoon region, except over southeastern
China, parts of Malaysia and Indonesia.





*South American Monsoons:*



Long-term rainfall deficits are present over the Amazon Basin.



During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over
portions of northern and eastern Brazil, northeastern Peru, Uruguay and
central Argentina. Above-average precipitation was observed over much of
southern Brazil, Paraguay, northern Bolivia, Ecuador, as well as
northeastern Colombia.



For Days 1-7 (26 Nov – 02 Dec 2018), below-average precipitation is
predicted for portions of Venezuela, southern Colombia, Peru, southeastern
Brazil, central Argentina and southern Chile.  Above-average precipitation
is predicted for much of northern Brazil, eastern Bolivia, northern
Paraguay and northern Argentina.





*For questions or comments, please contact:


Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov  (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)
*---------------------------------------------------------------------------
   *
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Meteorologist
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
USA
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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