[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

[Wei Shi - NOAA Federal]

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons
website:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Global-Monsoon.shtml

*HIGHLIGHTS:*



*African Monsoons:*



Above-average rainfall was observed over the far western Gulf of Guinea
countries. Rainfall was also above-average over parts of CAR and South
Sudan, portions of DRC and Ethiopia.



Suppressed rainfall prevailed across equatorial eastern Africa.



Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over southern Gabon, southern Congo-Brazzaville, western and eastern DRC,
northern Angola, southwestern Angola, Rwanda, Burundi, and parts of
Ethiopia. In contrast, there is an increased chance for below-average
rainfall over southern CAR, northern DRC, portions of South Sudan,
southeastern Angola, northeastern Namibia, western Zambia, and northern
Botswana.





*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*



For the past 90 days, below normal rainfall deficits  dominated much of
central and western India extending into parts of Pakistan, a small region
in interior central eastern China, Thailand, large parts of eastern
Australia, Malaysia, the Philippines, parts of Indonesia, and Papua New
Guinea. Elsewhere, the rainfall amounts received were at normal to slightly
above normal levels, particularly in Burma, Japan, Korea, Cambodia, and
Vietnam. For the past 30 days, severe rainfall deficits are noted across
large parts of south central India, coastal central eastern China, Japan,
Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, large parts of Indonesian islands, Malaysia, the
Philippines, and New Guinea. Overall, less (than normal) rainfall fell
across the region.



In this past week, rainfall amounts are generally below normal over much of
the region especially along southern and coastal eastern India. The other
monsoon over India, termed the Northeast Winter monsoon’s (Oct-Dec) onset
is much delayed this year, and finally arrived last week according to IMD.
Also according to IMD since the first of October till today, All India
Rainfall has been has been 50% below normal, but Tamilnadu, Kerala, Odissa
and Kashmir states received above normal rainfall according to IMD. In the
upcoming two weeks, the NCEP GFS model forecasts generally below normal
rainfall over almost the entire monsoon region, except over southeastern
China and in some parts of Indonesia.





*South American Monsoons:*



Long-term rainfall deficits are present over the Amazon Basin and the
northern Brazilian Plateau.



During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over
portions of west-central and southeastern Brazil, central Colombia,
northern Bolivia and northern Argentina. Above-average precipitation was
observed over portions of the extreme southern Brazil, Paraguay, central
Argentina, southern Chile, as well as eastern Colombia.



For Days 1-7 (05 - 11 Nov 2018), below-average precipitation is predicted
for much of Venezuela, western Colombia, southern Peru, the extreme
southern Brazil, southern Paraguay and northeastern Argentina.
Above-average precipitation is predicted for portions of central and
southern Brazil, southern Bolivia, northern and central Argentina and
northern Peru.





*For questions or comments, please contact:


Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)


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   *
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Meteorologist
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
USA
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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