[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

[Wei Shi - NOAA Federal]

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons
website:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Global-Monsoon.shtml

*HIGHLIGHTS:*



*African Monsoons:*



Weekly rainfall deficits exceeded 100mm over parts of southern Zambia,
northern Zimbabwe, central Mozambique and western Madagascar. In contrast,
another week of moderate to heavy rainfall sustained moisture surpluses
over parts of Tanzania.



Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over southern Angola, western Zambia, eastern Botswana, Zimbabwe, and
eastern South Africa. In contrast, there is an increased chance for
below-average rainfall over much of Tanzania, eastern Zambia, Malawi, and
northern Mozambique.



*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*



For the past 90 days, below normal rainfall deficits remain in general over
Iran, Afghanistan, much of central and southern India, South Korea, Japan,
Papua New Guinea, and large parts of north central and north eastern
Australia. Elsewhere else the monsoon rainfall is at normal to above normal
levels. For the past 30 days, rainfall amounts were generally at near or
slightly above normal levels across the region, except over Papua New
Guinea, southern Sumatra island, and northern and northeastern Australia
where the rainfall deficits are severe.



In this past week, rainfall over the region was generally mixed, with below
normal rainfall regions exceeding the other categories.  Northern Australia
continues to receive some decent rainfall for a second week in a row, where
there are longer term shortfalls. Central eastern Australia continues to be
dry. In the upcoming two weeks, the NCEP GFS model predicts below normal
rainfall over northcentral and eastern Australia. Elsewhere, the predicted
rainfall pattern is mixed, with slightly above normal rainfall over parts
of western Australia and Borneo island.





*South American Monsoons:*



Long-term rainfall deficits are present over the Amazon Basin and the
Brazilian Plateau.



During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over much
of Brazil, Uruguay, eastern Argentina and Bolivia.  Above-average
precipitation was observed over portions of the extreme southern Brazil and
northern Argentina.



For Days 1-7 (29 Jan – 04 Feb 2018), below-average precipitation is
predicted over much of northern and south eastern South America.
Above-average precipitation is predicted for portions of central and
southern Brazil, northern Argentina and southern Bolivia.





*For questions or comments, please contact:


Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)
*---------------------------------------------------------------------------
   *
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Meteorologist
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
USA
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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