[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

[Wei Shi - NOAA Federal]

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons
website:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Global-Monsoon.shtml

*HIGHLIGHTS:*



*African Monsoons:*



Weekly rainfall surpluses exceeded 100mm over northeastern Mozambique.



Suppressed rainfall prevailed over southern Zambia, southeastern Angola,
Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, portions of Mozambique, South Africa and much
of Madagascar.



Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over portions of Angola, southern DRC, northern Zambia, northern Malawi,
southern Tanzania, northern Mozambique, and eastern South Africa. In
contrast, there is an increased chance for below-average rainfall over
southeastern Angola, southern Zambia, eastern Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe,
southern Malawi and southern Mozambique.



*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*



For the past 90 days, below normal rainfall deficits remain in general over
much of central and southern India, South Korea, Papua New Guinea,
Cambodia, and parts of north central and north eastern Australia. Elsewhere
else the monsoon rainfall is at normal to above normal levels. For the past
30 days,  rainfall amounts were generally at near or slightly above normal
levels across the region, except over  Papua New Guinea northern and
northeastern Australia where the rainfall deficits are severe. Slight
deficits are also noted over southeastern coast of India.



In this past week, rainfall over the region was generally mixed, with below
normal rainfall regions exceeding the other categories.  Northern
Australia, finally began to receive some decent rainfall. Eastern Australia
continues to be dry. In the upcoming two weeks, the NCEP GFS model above
normal rainfall over the northern Australia, where the rainfall so far has
been highly deficient. More rainfall is also predicted over eastern China.
Elsewhere below normal rainfall has been forecasted.





*South American Monsoons:*



Long-term rainfall deficits are present over the Amazon Basin and the
Brazilian Plateau.



During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over much
of Brazil, northern Argentina and southern Bolivia.  Above-average
precipitation was observed over portions of southern Brazil, Uruguay,
northern Bolivia, northern Peru and southern Colombia.



For Days 1-7 (22 - 28 Jan 2018), below-average precipitation is predicted
over much of Brazil, western Ecuador, central Peru, Bolivia, central
Argentina and southern Chile. Above-average precipitation is predicted for
portions of southern Brazil, southern Paraguay, northern Argentina and
southern Peru.





*For questions or comments, please contact:


Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)


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   *
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Meteorologist
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
USA
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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