[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

[Muthuvel Chelliah - NOAA Federal]

* The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC
Global Monsoons website:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Global-Monsoon.shtml
<http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Global-Monsoon.shtml>
*

*HIGHLIGHTS:*



*African Monsoons:*



·         Moderate to locally heavy rainfall resulted in moisture surpluses
over southwestern Zambia, Zimbabwe and southern Mozambique, whereas
suppressed rainfall prevailed across much of Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi,
Malawi and northern Mozambique.

·         Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average
rainfall over parts of Gabon, Congo-Brazzaville, western DRC, and southern
Cameroon, central Angola, the Caprivi Strip region, portions of western
Zambia, Zimbabwe, Botswana, northern South Africa, portions of northeastern
DRC, Uganda, Rwanda, Kenya, and Ethiopia. In contrast, there is an
increased chance for below-average rainfall over parts of southern Angola
and Namibia, and portions of central and eastern Tanzania.


*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*



For the past 90 days, below normal rainfall deficits remain in general over
many parts of the Middle East, southeastern India, South Korea, Japan,
Papua New Guinea, and the deficits accrue over large parts of north central
and north eastern Australia. Elsewhere across southeast Asia, and over
western Australia, the monsoon rainfall is at normal to above normal
levels. For the past 30 days,  rainfall amounts were generally at near or
slightly above normal levels across the region, except over  Papua New
Guinea, Sumatra island, and northern and northeastern and eastern Australia
where the rainfall deficits are severe. Western Australia has received some
above normal rainfall for this period.

In this past week, rainfall over the region was below normal over New
Guinea Island, southeastern China, and over large parts of Indonesian
Archipelago, northern and northeastern Australia, and above normal over
northwestern Australia. In the upcoming two weeks, the NCEP GFS model is
predicting a mixed rainfall pattern over the region, with below normal
rainfall over northwestern Australia in the first week, followed by above
normal amounts in the second week. Also above normal rainfall is forecast
over eastern Australia in the first week and less rainfall is forecast over
southern China in the second week.





*South American Monsoons:*



No update is available this week.





*For questions or comments, please contact:


Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)
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Dr. Muthuvel Chelliah, eMail: Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov
Rm. 3008, Climate Prediction Center, Ph: (301) 683-3393
NCEP/NWS/NOAA/U.S.Dept.of Commerce,
5830, University Research Court, NCWCP,
College Park, MD 20740
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