[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

Wei Shi - NOAA Federal wei.shi at noaa.gov
Mon May 15 15:49:36 UTC 2017

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons


*African Monsoons:*

Another week of moderate to locally heavy rainfall sustained moisture
surpluses over northern DRC, eastern CAR, many parts of Ethiopia, and
southeastern Kenya and eastern Tanzania.

Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over much of Guinea, Sierra Leone, southwestern Mali, Burkina Faso,
northern Cote d’Ivoire, northern Togo, northern Benin, CAR, northern DRC,
South Sudan and western Ethiopia. In contrast, there is an increased chance
for below-average rainfall over southern Cote d’Ivoire, southern Ghana,
southern Ethiopia, southern Somalia, northern Kenya and parts of Uganda.

*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*

For the past 90 days, normal to slightly below normal rainfall deficits
remain in general over most parts of India, except over northeastern India
and Bangladesh where the rainfall was excess. Large rainfall deficits are
noted over large parts of Australia, except along its east coast.
Elsewhere, the rainfall was generally near to above normal, except over
Papa New Guinea where it was below. For the past 30 days rainfall deficits
are found over Papa New Guinea and along the east coast of Australia. Small
deficits are also noted along coastal southern India, South Korea and some
parts of Japan.  Large excess precipitation is noted over northeastern
India. Elsewhere, the rainfall is generally above to near normal.

In this past week, the observed rainfall amounts have generally been
sporadic, and are slightly above normal in some places.  In the next couple
of weeks the NCEP GFS model is predicting above normal rainfall over
northeastern India in the first week and below normal rainfall over
southeastern China in the second week.

*South American Monsoons:*

Long-term rainfall deficits are present over the Amazon Basin and central

During the last 7 days (08 - 14 May 2017), below-average precipitation was
observed over much of the northern South America, as well as the extreme
southern Brazil and southern Chile.  Above-average precipitation was
observed over portions of Colombia, Ecuador, northern Bolivia, Paraguay,
eastern Argentina and central Chile.

For 15-21 May 2017, below-average precipitation is predicted over much of
northern South America.  Above-average precipitation is predicted for the
extreme southern Brazil, northeastern Argentina and central Chile.

*For questions or comments, please contact:

Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)

Wei Shi, Ph.D
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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