[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

Wei Shi - NOAA Federal wei.shi at noaa.gov
Mon May 8 15:37:22 UTC 2017

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons


*African Monsoons:*

Above-average rainfall was observed over many places in Central Africa and
the Greater Horn of Africa.

Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over much of Guinea, Sierra Leone, southern Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea,
Gabon, Congo Brazzaville, and portions of CAR and DRC. In contrast, there
is an increased chance for below-average rainfall over northern South Sudan
Republic and the neighboring areas of Sudan.

*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*

For the past 90 days, normal to slightly below normal rainfall deficits
remain over most  of India, except over northeastern India and Bangladesh
where the rainfall was excess. Large rainfall deficits are noted over large
parts of central/northern Australia. Elsewhere it is a mixed pattern with
near normal rainfall situation over southeast Asian countries, above normal
over the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia and below normal over papa New
Guinea.  In the longer 180days term, severe deficits from last year remain
over southern/central India and over central and northeastern Australia.
For the past 30 days  rainfall deficits are found over southeastern China,
coastal southeastern India,  eastern Australia, and Papa New Guinea.
Elsewhere, the rainfall amounts are at near or above normal levels,
particularly it is above over north eastern India and parts of Indonesia.

In this past week, the observed rainfall amounts have generally been below
normal across the region, except over parts of Indonesia in Borneo and
Sumatra islands and in eastern China. In the next couple of weeks the NCEP
GFS model is predicting some pre-monsoon rain along extreme southwestern
India and the summer monsoon is slowly making its way across the
southeastern Asia towards India.

*South American Monsoons:*

Long-term rainfall deficits are present over the Amazon Basin and central

During the last 7 days (01-07 May 2017), below-average precipitation was
observed over much of the northern Brazil, as well as the extreme southern
Brazil and Uruguay.  Above-average precipitation was observed over portions
of Colombia, Ecuador, northern Peru, Paraguay and southern Chile.

For 08-14 May 2017, below-average precipitation is predicted over much of
Brazil, Peru and southern Bolivia. Above-average precipitation is predicted
for portions of southern Colombia, Ecuador, eastern Argentina and southern

*For questions or comments, please contact:

Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)

Wei Shi, Ph.D
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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