[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

Mon May 1 16:59:41 UTC 2017

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons
website:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Global-Monsoon.shtml

*HIGHLIGHTS:*

*African Monsoons:*

Moderate to locally heavy rainfall resulted in moisture surpluses over
parts of Cote d’Ivoire, CAR, northern DRC, South Sudan, portions of
Ethiopia, and southern Mozambique.

Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over parts of Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, western Cote d’Ivoire, and
southern Ethiopia. In contrast, there is an increased chance for
below-average rainfall over eastern Cote d’Ivoire, southern Ghana, southern
Togo, southern Benin, portions of Chad, CAR, and South Sudan and parts of
western Ethiopia.

*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*

For the past 90 days, normal to slightly below normal rainfall deficits
remain over most  of India, except over northeastern India and Bangladesh
where the rainfall was excess. Large rainfall deficits are noted over large
parts of central Australia. Elsewhere it is a mixed pattern with near
normal rainfall situation over southeast Asian countries, above normal over
the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia and below normal over papa New
Guinea.  In the longer 180days term, severe deficits from last year remain
over southern/central India and over central and northeastern Australia.
For the past 30 days  rainfall deficits are found over southeastern China,
eastern Australia, and Papa New Guinea. Elsewhere, the rainfall amounts are
at near or above normal levels, particularly it is above over north eastern
India and parts of Indonesia.

In this past week,, almost no rainfall fell over most of India, but
positive rainfall anomalies are noted over northeastern India. Elsewhere
the weekly rainfall amounts have generally been below normal. In its first
outlook release (Apr. 19) the India Met. Dept, stated that for the 2017
summer monsoon season(Jun-Sep) rainfall will be at 96% of the long period
average, thus implying a near normal monsoon rainfall season. In the next
couple of weeks the NCEP GFS model is predicting a mixed rainfall pattern
over south and southeast Asia, with almost little to no rainfall over India
and Australia.

*South American Monsoons:*

Long-term rainfall deficits are present over the Amazon Basin and central
Brazil.

During the last 7 days (24-30 Apr 2017), below-average precipitation was
observed over much of the northern South America.  Above-average
precipitation was observed over portions of Peru, central Bolivia, central
Argentina, as well as central and the extreme southern Brazil.

For 01-07 May 2017, below-average precipitation is predicted over central
Peru, northern Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, the extreme southern Brazil,
as well as portions of northern and central Brazil.  Above-average
precipitation is predicted for much of Colombia, Ecuador, northern Peru,
central Bolivia, southern Chile, and portions of southern Brazil.

*For questions or comments, please contact:

Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)
*---------------------------------------------------------------------------
   *
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Meteorologist
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
USA
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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