[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

Wei Shi - NOAA Federal wei.shi at noaa.gov
Mon Mar 13 16:58:01 UTC 2017

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons


*African Monsoons:*

Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Cyclone Enawo resulted in moisture
surpluses over many places in Madagascar.

Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over portions of western Angola, eastern Zambia, northern Malawi, southern
Tanzania and northern Madagascar. In contrast, there is an increased chance
for below-average rainfall over portions of eastern Angola, southern DRC,
western Zambia, northeastern DRC, much of Uganda, western Kenya,
southeastern South Sudan and southwestern Ethiopia.

*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*

For the past 90 days, slight to heavy rainfall deficits remain over parts
of southeastern, eastern to northeastern parts of Australia, as well as
over Papua New Guinea and over small parts of southeastern China. However,
rainfall situation is generally better in western Australia, particularly
in the northern region. Over India, the longer term 180 days deficits
continues to stay over the southern states particularly Tamilnadu. For the
past 30 days the rainfall was  above normal over parts of southern
Afghanistan, northeastern India, Bangladesh and large part of southeast
Asia, except Papua New Guinea. Large parts of northern Australia are
experiencing rainfall deficits at various levels.

In this past week,  the rainfall over much of the region was much below
normal (particularly far northern Australia). In the Indian Ocean, tropical
cyclone Enawo dumped heavy rains in Madagascar early in past week. Regions
surrounding the far northern Bay of Bengal also received large rainfall
amounts on the east side of +ve PVA and with associated moisture from the
head Bay.  In the next couple of weeks the NCEP GFS model is predicting a
mixed rainfall pattern over east Asia, with particularly less rainfall over
northern Australia in the first week and slightly more in the second week.

*South American Monsoons:*

Long-term rainfall deficits are present over the Amazon Basin and central

During the last 7 days (06 - 12 Mar 2017), below-average precipitation was
observed over central Brazil, western Bolivia, Paraguay and northern
Argentina.  Above-average precipitation was observed over much of northern
South America, Uruguay and the extreme southern Brazil.

For 13 – 19 Mar 2017, below-average precipitation is predicted over much of
northwestern South America, central Brazil, southern Bolivia, central
Argentina and southern Chile.  Above-average precipitation is predicted for
portions of northern and southern Brazil, Peru, central Bolivia and

*For questions or comments, please contact:

Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)

Wei Shi, Ph.D
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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