[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

[Wei Shi - NOAA Federal]

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons
website:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Global-Monsoon.shtml

*HIGHLIGHTS:*



*African Monsoons:*



Weekly total rainfall exceeded 150mm over parts of northern Namibia, local
areas in eastern Angola, portions of southern DRC, Zambia, and central
Mozambique.



Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over parts of southern Angola and northern Namibia, portions of southern
DRC, much of Zambia, and much of Madagascar. In contrast, there is an
increased chance for below-average rainfall over portions of Botswana,
South Africa, Lesotho, Swaziland, southern Zimbabwe, southern Mozambique,
portions of Ethiopia, Uganda, northern Tanzania and Kenya.





*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*



For the past 90 days, slight to heavy rainfall deficits remain over parts
of southeastern, eastern to northeastern parts of Australia, as well as
over Papua New Guinea. However, rainfall situation is generally better in
western Australia, particularly in the northern region. Over the same
period smaller deficits remain over eastern central India and southeastern
China.  Over India, the longer term 180 days deficits are much larger over
southern peninsular areas, particularly in Tamilnadu. For the past 30 days
the rainfall was  above normal over parts of southern Afghanistan,
northeastern Pakistan, and Jammu Kashmir region of India.. However,
rainfall was below normal over eastern China, northeastern and eastern
Australia, and central and eastern New Guinea island. Very little to no
rainfall fell over southern India to possibly offset the longer 180 days
deficits there leading to severe drought in that region.



In this past week,  the rainfall over much of the region was much below
normal (particularly northern Australia), except over the Philippines and
parts of Java and Borneo islands. At this time. a category 2 tropical
cyclone Enawo is on its way to make landfall in Madagascar in the southern
Indian Ocean and threatening the island with severe rains, and extra
tropical storm Blanche is impacting northwestern Australia with more
rainfall. In the next couple of weeks the NCEP GFS model is predicting
above normal rainfall over the drought ridden southern peninsular India. In
northern Australia less rainfall is forecast during first week, but some
relief during second week.





*South American Monsoons:*



Long-term rainfall deficits are present over the Amazon Basin and central
Brazil.



During the last 7 days (27 Feb – 05 Mar 2017),  below-average precipitation
was observed over much of Brazil, Uruguay, Colombia, Ecuador and northern
Bolivia.  Above-average precipitation was observed over portions of
northern Peru, northern Argentina and southern Brazil.



For 06 – 12 Mar 2017, below-average precipitation is predicted over central
Brazil and portions of Bolivia and northern Argentina. Above-average
precipitation is predicted for much of the northern South America and
Uruguay.




*For questions or comments, please contact:


Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)
*---------------------------------------------------------------------------
   *
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Meteorologist
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
USA
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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