[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

Wei Shi - NOAA Federal wei.shi at noaa.gov
Mon Jun 19 16:06:02 UTC 2017

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons


*African Monsoons:*

During the past seven days, rainfall was above-average over portions of
West and Central Africa, whereas suppressed rainfall prevailed in the Lake
Victoria region.

Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over many places in the Gulf of Guinea and the neighboring areas of the
Sahel countries, and western Ethiopia. In contrast, there is an increased
chance for below-average rainfall across parts of eastern CAR, South Sudan,
northeastern DRC and Uganda.

*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*

For the past 90 days, weak-to-large below normal rainfall deficits remain
in general over parts of Afghanistan, southcentral India, south Korea,
Japan, Papa New Guinea, parts of southeastern China, and large parts of
Australia. During same period, rainfall excess is noted over northeastern
India, Bangladesh, and many southeast Asian countries in the South China
Sea area including the Philippines. For the past 30 days, overall,  below
normal rainfall situation is noted eastern central India, southwestern
China and southwestern/southeastern Australia, but the longer term rainfall
deficits remain still remain across  Australia. Elsewhere, the rainfall
anomaly pattern is near or slightly above normal.

In this past week, the observed rainfall amounts has been deficient across
central India, eastern China, Koreas, Japan and over the Philippines. East
coast of China got rain from the tropical storm Merbok.  The India Met.
Dept, (IMD) is reporting that the monsoon, so far since the beginning of
June, is overall about 5% above normal across India. The monsoon has now
advanced over all of southern and eastern India, and is yet to advance into
central, northern and western India. In the next couple of weeks the NCEP
GFS model is predicting overall a below normal rainfall pattern, except for
some wetness in southern and eastern India, southeastern China.

*North American Monsoons:*

Above-average rainfall has been observed over southern Mexico during the
past week, while central Mexico experienced drier-than-average condition.

Rainfall accumulations over the past 30 days were near-average for
southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico, below-average for central Mexico,
and above-average over much of southern Mexico.

NCEP/GFS Forecasts call for below-average (above-average) precipitation for
central and northern (southern) Mexico for the next two weeks.

*For questions or comments, please contact:

Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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