[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

Wei Shi - NOAA Federal wei.shi at noaa.gov
Mon Jun 26 16:07:02 UTC 2017

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons


*African Monsoons:*

Another week of moderate to locally heavy rainfall sustained moisture
surpluses over many places in West Africa.

Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over much of Senegal, Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea-Conakry, Sierra Leone,
Liberia, Cote d'Ivoire, western Ghana, western Burkina Faso, southern Mali
and southern Mauritania. In contrast, there is an increased chance for
below-average rainfall over northeastern DRC, northern Uganda, much of
South Sudan, southwestern Ethiopia and southern Sudan.

*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*

For the past 90 days, weak-to-large below normal rainfall deficits remain
in general over parts of Afghanistan, southcentral India, North/South
Korea, Japan, Papa New Guinea, and much of Australia. During same period,
rainfall excess remain over northeastern India, Bangladesh, and many
southeast Asian countries in the South China Sea area including the
Philippines and Indonesia. For the past 30 days, overall,  below normal
rainfall situation is noted over southern and eastern central India,
southwestern China bordering Burma, Koreas, Japan, and
southwestern/southeastern Australia, but the longer term rainfall deficits
remain still remain all over Australia. Elsewhere, the rainfall anomaly
pattern is near or slightly above normal.

In this past week, the observed rainfall amounts has been deficient across
central India, east central China, Koreas, Japan and over the Philippines
and eastern Papua New Guinea. The India Met. Dept, (IMD) is reporting that
the monsoon, so far since the beginning of June, is overall about 1% below
normal across India. Also according to the IMD, the SW monsoon has now
advanced over two thirds of Indic, except the very north and the west. In
the next couple of weeks the NCEP GFS model is predicting above normal
rainfall over east central China in the first week, and over western and
central India in the second week. Elsewhere, at or below normal rainfall is

*North American Monsoons:*

Below-average rainfall has been observed over central Mexico during the
past week.

Rainfall accumulations over the past 30 days were near-average for
southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico, below-average for central Mexico,
and above-average over much of southern Mexico.

NCEP/GFS Forecasts call for above-average precipitation for central and
southern Mexico for the next two weeks.

*For questions or comments, please contact:

Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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