[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

Wei Shi - NOAA Federal wei.shi at noaa.gov
Mon Jun 12 15:31:10 UTC 2017

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons


*African Monsoons:*

During the past seven days, moderate to locally heavy rainfall resulted in
moisture surpluses along the Gulf of Guinea coast, portions of Central
Africa, and near Sudan-South Sudan border.

Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over much of Guinea, Sierra Leone, western Liberia, northwestern Cote
d'Ivoire, southern Mali, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, southern Niger and western
Cameroon. In contrast, there Is an increased chance for below-average
rainfall over parts of Uganda, South Sudan and southern Sudan.

*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*

For the past 90 days, weak-to-large below normal rainfall deficits remain
in general over parts of Afghanistan, southcentral India, south Korea,
Japan, Papa New Guinea, southeastern China, and large parts of Australia.
During same period, rainfall excess is noted over northeastern India,
Bangladesh, and many southeast Asian countries in the South China Sea area.
For the past 30 days, overall, near normal rainfall situation is noted over
India and Australia, but the longer term rainfall deficits remain still
remain over Australia. Deficits also remain over southern and eastern
China, south Korea, and Japan.

In this past week, the observed rainfall amount has been above normal over
west central India, eastern China and over the Philippines. Even though it
has only been twelve days since the start of the summer SW monsoon season
(JJAS) over India, the India Met. Dept, (IMD) is reporting that the monsoon
is overall about 18% above normal across India. The monsoon has now
advanced over much of south India. In the next couple of weeks the NCEP GFS
model is predicting a mixed pattern of strong above and below normal
rainfall patterns across the monsoon region with below normal rainfall over
much of south India.

*North American Monsoons:*

Above-average rainfall has been observed over much of Yucatan, Mexico
during the past week, while the eastern shore areas along the Gulf of
Mexico experienced drier-than-average condition.

Rainfall accumulations over the past 30 days were near-average for
southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico, slightly below-average for central
Mexico, and above-average over much of southern Mexico.

NCEP/GFS Forecasts call for above-average (below-average) precipitation for
southern (central) Mexico for the next two weeks.

*For questions or comments, please contact:

Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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