[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

Wei Shi - NOAA Federal wei.shi at noaa.gov
Mon Jul 17 15:28:34 UTC 2017

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons


*African Monsoons:*

Weekly rainfall totals exceeded 100mm over portions of Guinea, Sierra
Leone, southwestern Cameroon, eastern Sudan and western Ethiopia.

Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over southern Senegal, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia,
southern Mali, western Cote d'Ivoire, southern Benin, southern Nigeria,
southwestern Cameroon, portions of western Eritrea and Ethiopia. In
contrast, there is an increased chance for below-average rainfall over
eastern CAR, southern Sudan, and portions of South Sudan Republic.

*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*

For the past 90 days, weak-to-large below normal rainfall deficits remain
in general over parts of east central India, North/South Korea, Japan, Papa
New Guinea, and much of Australia. During same period, rainfall excess
remain over northeastern India, Bangladesh, Burma, and many southeast Asian
countries in the South China Sea area including large parts of Thailand,
Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia. For the past 30
days, overall,  below normal rainfall situation is noted over peninsular
India, north central China, southeastern Australia, but the longer term
rainfall deficits remain still remain all over Australia. Elsewhere, the
rainfall anomaly pattern is near or slightly above normal.

In this past week, the observed rainfall amounts has been deficient across
central India, China, Koreas, Japan and over the Philippines and eastern
Papua New Guinea. The India Met. Dept, (IMD) is reporting that the monsoon,
so far since the beginning of June, is only about 1% below the long term
mean across India as a whole. In the next couple of weeks the NCEP GFS
model is predicting below normal rainfall over northeastern India and
China, but near to above normal elsewhere across the monsoon region. As of
this writing there are no reported oceanic cyclones/storms in south and
east Asia.

*North American Monsoons:*

Above-average rainfall has been observed over southern Arizona,
northwestern and central Mexico during the past week.

Rainfall accumulations over the past 30 days were below-average for
southern New Mexico and much of northern and central Mexico.

NCEP/GFS Forecasts call for above-average precipitation for Arizona and
western Mexico (along the Sierra Madre Occidental) for the next two weeks.

*For questions or comments, please contact:

Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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