[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

Wei Shi - NOAA Federal wei.shi at noaa.gov
Mon Sep 19 16:14:20 UTC 2016

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons


*African Monsoons:*

Rainfall surpluses exceeded 100mm over portions of Guinea and Sierra Leone.

Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over much of the Gulf of Guinea and portions of central Africa countries.

*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*

For the past 90 days rainfall amounts are showing an overall mixed pattern
over the monsoon region with slightly deficient conditions over parts of
central western India, particularly the state of Gujarat, and central
eastern India, southern peninsular India, parts of central China, Koreas,
parts of Japan and Papua New Guinea, but above normal elsewhere
particularly the Indonesian archipelago and the Philippines. For the past
30 days the rainfall situation is overall a dry pattern over southern
peninsular India, north central India, and central eastern China, and the
Koreas. Elsewhere, rainfall was at generally at near normal or above normal

In this past week, monsoon rainfall was generally deficient across much of
the region. According to the India Met. Dept. (IMD), as of today, for the
2016 monsoon season so far, since the 1st of June, the monsoon rainfall
continues to stay slightly deficient  by about -5 % across the country, as
the summer monsoon slowly begins to recede from continental India.  In the
next couple of weeks the NCEP GFS is also predicting the same gradual
receding of the summer monsoon slowly across India from northwest to

*North American Monsoons:*

Near-average rainfall has been observed over northwestern Mexico and
southwestern U.S. during the past week.

Rainfall accumulations over the past 30 days were slightly above-average
for northern Mexico and below-average for southern Mexico.

NCEP/GFS Forecasts call for near-average precipitation for Arizona/New
Mexico during 19 September – 02 October, 2016.

*South American Monsoons:*

Long-term rainfall deficits are present over Brazilian Plateau and southern

During the last 7 days (12-18 September 2016), below-average precipitation
was observed over Venezuela, northwestern Brazil and southern Brazil.
Above-average precipitation was observed over portions of Colombia, eastern
Ecuador and southern Amazon Basin.

For 19-25 September2016, below-average precipitation is predicted over
Venezuela, northern and southern Brazil, eastern Argentina and southern
Chile. Above-average precipitation is predicted over central Colombia,
western-central Peru and southern Bolivia.

*For questions or comments, please contact:

Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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