[Ncep.list.emc.monsoondesk] Weekly Updates of Global Monsoon Systems

Wei Shi - NOAA Federal wei.shi at noaa.gov
Mon Sep 12 15:58:14 UTC 2016

The weekly PowerPoint presentations summarizing the recent variability of
the global monsoon systems have been updated on the CPC Global Monsoons


*African Monsoons:*

Rainfall surpluses exceeded 100mm over portions of Guinea and Sierra Leone,
and local areas in northwestern DRC.

Week-1 outlooks call for an increased chance for above-average rainfall
over Guinea-Bissau, Guinea-Conakry, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Cote d’Ivoire,
southern Ghana, southern Togo, southern Benin, northeastern DRC and western
Ethiopia. In contrast, there is an increased chance for below-average
rainfall over central Mali, portions of Burkina Faso, and southern Sudan.

*Asian-Australian Monsoons:*

For the past 90 days rainfall amounts are showing an overall mixed pattern
over the monsoon region with slightly deficient conditions over parts of
central western India, particularly the state of Gujarat,  and central
eastern India, southern peninsular India, parts of central China, Koreas,
parts of Japan and Papua New Guinea, but above normal elsewhere
particularly the Indonesian archipelago and the Philippines. For the past
30 days the rainfall situation is overall a dry pattern over southern
peninsular India and central eastern China, the Koreas, southwest Japan,
the Philippines and Papua New Guinea. Elsewhere, rainfall was at generally
at near normal or above normal levels.

In this past week, monsoon rainfall was generally deficient across much of
the region. According to the India Met. Dept. (IMD), as of today, for the
2016 monsoon season so far, since the 1st of June, the monsoon rainfall has
been slightly deficient  by about -5 % across the country, with only about
a couple of more weeks left before the summer monsoon season is officially
over. In the next couple of weeks the NCEP GFS is predicting a gradual
receding of the summer monsoon from the northern and northwestern parts of
India, central China, as well as deficient rainfall over southern India,
and southern regions of Thailand, Laos and Vietnam. An active cat5 super
typhoon Meranti in the far western Pacific situated to the east of the
Philippines is heading west towards southern Taiwan and east coast of China.

*North American Monsoons:*

Above-average rainfall has been observed over northwestern Mexico and
southern Arizona during the past week.

Rainfall accumulations over the past 30 days were slightly below-average
for southwestern U.S.

NCEP/GFS Forecasts call for near-average precipitation for Arizona/New
Mexico during 12 - 25 September, 2016.

*South American Monsoons:*

The annual summary for the 2015-2016 South American Monsoon wet season is
available on the CPC website at:


*For questions or comments, please contact:

Endalkachew.Bekele at noaa.gov (for the African monsoons)

Muthuvel.Chelliah at noaa.gov  (for Asian-Australian monsoons)

Wei.Shi at noaa.gov  (for American monsoons and for general issues about the
CPC Global Monsoons products)
Wei Shi, Ph.D
Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
NCWCP  Room 3116
5830 University Research Court
College Park, MD 20740
Phone: (301) 683-3440
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